That the coronavirus has mutated to create the variants we hear so much about should not be surprising. All viruses do that, including influenza. The current situation appears to be that the British variant is deadlier, the South African variant blunts the efficacy of at least the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, and the Brazilian variant can reinfect people who have recovered from covid-19. The British one is the one to worry about here in the US. Experts are attributing increased cases and deaths in Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania to the British variant.
Internationally, the news remains much the same. England has banned travel from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kenya and the Philippines. India just reported its highest daily number of cases in six months. The EU continues to have vaccine issues. While 47 percent of people in Britain and 30 percent of people in the US have gotten at least one shot of vaccine, only 11 percent of EU residents have. Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations says of the whole vaccine business, "This has been catastrophic for the reputation of the European Union." Brexit is probably looking better to the British every day.
Vaccine hesitancy or avoidance remains a problem here in the US. A recent survey found that 20 percent of the respondents would only get vaccinated if it were required by their employer or school. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans said they would not get vaccinated as did 28 percent of White Evangelical Christians. I do believe there is likely a large overlap between those two groups. And of course the number of people who won't get vaccinated is a huge factor in our reaching herd immunity. And should we reach it, we need to remember that what comes can also go, and herd immunity is not forever. Dr. Fauci estimates that it will take 70 to 85 percent of the population's being immune in order to reach herd immunity; another Board-certified internist says it will take 85 to 90 percent. One factor in when we might reach herd immunity is that elementary school children might not be vaccinated until early 2022.
Remember yesterday when I wondered what the local university would do in the fall. They announced last night that they intend to "return to the in-person residential, educational, and research experience that has always been a hallmark of our university." Classes will be in-person, libraries and recreational facilities will be open, and the grading system will return to normal. (During virtual instruction, students have been allowed to take a certain number of courses on a pass-fail basis.) The enhanced cleaning procedures put in place for the pandemic will continue. Whether staff members who have been working at home for the last year can continue to do so is being studied. Final plans for the fall will be announced by July 15. I wonder if this decision will put pressure on the K-12 public schools to follow suit. We shall see.
Finally, declines in testing in many states in the Southeast and Great Plains make it harder to know just how widely the virus is spreading as restrictions are lifted and people go back to pre-pandemic daily life. New York is currently testing 1,200 people per 100,000 in population; Rhode Island is testing 1,677 per 100,000 people. On the other end, Kansas is testing 60 people a day for every 100, 000 in population, and Alabama is only testing a few more. Only Idaho is doing fewer tests relative to population. The number of tests being conducted is resulting in some wildly different percent positivity figures New York reports a percent positivity of 3.5. Kansas and Alabama report 12 and 12.8 percent, respectively. The extreme is Idaho, with a percent positivity of 27.3.
Here in Virginia, anyone over the age of 16 can register for vaccination as of April 18. Having a Democratic governor and General Assembly, we wouldn't want to disappoint POTUS by missing his May 1 projection. People in group 1C may now register. Why they named the different groups 1A, 1B, and 1C and not 1, 2, 3 or A, B, C baffles me. Did they want everyone to feel good about being in Group 1, sort of like the participation trophies common in today's youth sports? The "1" and a letter seems to muddle things, but then no one asked me for advice as the hierarchy was developed.
1 comment:
I have to say that Brexit is looking no better now than it ever did. Each country is in charge of its own vaccination programme so that would make no difference in or out. I can't get my head around the attitude to the AZ vaccine though, if country X doesn't want to give it to certain age groups (or not at all) then that is their choice but then why moan about country B (mine) getting more of it because they are actually using it.
Next academic year is a mystery, the decisions are made on high and universities are told what they will be doing. I'm pretty sure that no-one is looking beyond June 21st at the moment but if that is, as was promised, the end of restrictions then education will be back to normal by October. All over 18s that want it should have been vaccinated by then, my finger waving says that students should be ready for their second dose at the start of term.
I'll take vaccination over herd immunity because I am lucky enough to have that choice. I suspect that the numbers who cannot be vaccinated are very small compared to those deciding not to be vaccinated. I respect their right to choose but I'm glad that I'm not dependant on the actions of others to secure my health.
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