The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 461 (961)

Just a few quick bits today since I'll be spending the afternoon working early voting. It could get dicey if the crowds we saw last week continue. A "full" slate of officials would be eight or nine, nine giving one extra person to handle things that pop up and require unusual attention, things such as same-day registration. This afternoon, there will be six of us. If we need to, we can probably get a staff member from the registrar's office to help out, but they have their own work to do. I am not optimistic about the election as a whole. Who knows what kind of election we will have in 2024 if 2022 swings red. Or might that election be our last?

I was pleased to read this morning that Shanghai Disney has kept rides operating for the people who are locked in there until they test negative for COVID. I wonder if they're charging them for food.

BA.5 is no longer the dominant COVID variant in the US. Omicron subvariants such as BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are. There is some new evidence that the bivalent vaccine tailored for BA.5 does offer some protection against the new subvariants. That only helps if you get vaccinated, though.

Finally, there is news of the tridemic or tripledemic or threesome or whatever you want to call the threesome of COVID, RSV, and influenza. Orange County, California has declared a health emergency as all three diseases spread rapidly. RSV used to be highest in December through February; it's already higher than that. Emergency rooms are seeing more children on a daily basis than ever before. The best protection? Do what we did two years ago. Wear a mask indoors or around other people, stay home when sick, wash your hands often and refrain from touching your face. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 460 (960)

When I began writing this daily musing 960 days ago, there seemed to be no real consensus on what to do with "covid" the word. Some articles had it as I've used it up to now, in all lower case. Others gave it an initial capital, while still others used all capitals. The third means, all caps, has become the standard meaning that anything else is marked as a typo or misspelling. Having gotten tired of seeing the squiggly red line under my "covids," I'm switching to the all-caps version. I probably should have done so a long time ago, but I've been lazy. It's just easier to type it in all lower case, with no shift or caps key involved. 

I mentioned that Shanghai Disney had been locked down due to COVID with visitors shut inside. A visitor can now leave after testing negative for COVID. I wonder if they're keeping the attractions open so that the people have something to do while they wait. 

Hospitalizations from influenza are at an all-time high paralleling the rise of RSV (respiratory syncytial virus). RSV is said to be up because of COVID mitigation measures that prevented many infants from being exposed and gathering some immunity. As one pediatrician put it, "The virus is now playing catch-up in these kids." Most adults can, if they come down with RSV, fight it off in a week or two, since they have some immunity from prior infections. These people may assume that RSV is a mild cold or even a mild case of COVID. Primary symptoms in adults and children are cough, runny nose, and fever. For infants, RSV may present as lethargy, irritability, decreased appetite, and a change in breathing. Besides less immunity, young children have much narrower airways. Unlike COVID, RSV can spread through touch. Viral discharge is in the form of respiratory droplets; where these droplets land becomes temporarily infectious. 

According to a new article in Nature Communications, COVID can reduce the number of bacterial species in a person's gut, with the resulting drop in diversity meaning there is more space for dangerous microbes to thrive. The wide use of antibiotics has killed off the disease-causing bacteria that are most susceptible to drugs. Antibody-resistant strains of bacteria can escape into the circulatory system and put a person at greater risk for life-threatening secondary infections. This migration to the bloodstream occurred in 20 percent of the patients studied. COVID, the gift that keeps on giving in so many ways.

The Road goes eve on and on ... Day 459 (959)

Happy Halloween! If the rain lets up, the friendly neighborhood inflatable T-Rex will be distributing candy here. If the rain does not let up, Rex will appear tomorrow evening, the Plan B for heavy rain tonight. We had so few kids here for so many years that they were taken in to trick or treat with friends in town. Two years ago, we had several families with kids and not wanting to see the pandemic cancel the kids' Halloween, I announced we would be setting out a bowl of candy on the porch and looking at costumes through the window. It worked, and we now have Halloween here. A lot of people even open their doors now to see the costumes first-hand.

The pandemic is not over. If it were, Shanghai's Disney Resort would not have closed suddenly with visitors stuck inside. Nor would Toronto hospitals be issuing alerts about overcrowded emergency departments. The CDC director tested negative after a course of Paxlovid but now has tested positive for a second time. I wonder, though, when they say she tested negative if they meant negative on two tests taken 48 hours apart. That is, after all, the guidance they were giving on their website. 

A study on non-mRNA vaccines and physical activity suggests that being active does help. A vaccine and low physical activity were 60 percent effective against contracting covid. A vaccine and moderate physical exercise were 72 percent effective; with high physical activity, the vaccine was 86 percent effective. Of course, more active people are probably, on average, at least a wee bit stronger than people who are not as active. 

A result of the pandemic that may or may not be good in the long run is that plans to build over 40 high-level (3 or 4) biosafety labs are proceeding in countries around the world. The argument for such facilities is that without them, certain geographic areas could not respond to the pandemic as well as they might otherwise have. India is building five BSL-3 labs and planning for nine more. Four institutions there have said that they will build BSL-4 labs. Globally, 27 BSL-4 labs are in the works in places including Kazakhstan, Singapore, and the Philippines. Not to cause any worry, a survey in the Philippines found that biosafety officers there had "only a weak understanding of biosafety." The argument that these labs are necessary for research somewhat overlooks the fact that at most labs, only 10 percent of the annual budget goes for research; the other 90 percent is needed to maintain the facility.

The coronavirus relies on our proteins to copy itself. Some researchers suggest that shutting off its access to those proteins would help slow or stop the spread. One such study has been published; the other has not yet been peer-reviewed. Some experts discount this work noting, "No matter what drug you approve, viruses will ultimately find a way around it." And to the suggestion that a drug cocktail might be developed as one was for HIV, one response is, "Trying to develop a combination therapy is more of a business challenge than a scientific challenge." 

 Looking ahead to the noted November holiday, Son #1 procured a frozen turkey; we had already procured a frozen tofurky for Son #2. The turkey is a bit larger than we usually get, but it seemed better to get it while we could than lose it by waiting for a smaller one. For the most part, the leftovers will freeze just fine.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 458 (958)

Only a couple of quickies today. I didn't want to resort to Twitter-news, and that's where most of the covid info seemed to be this morning. BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 are on track to become the dominant strains in the US in a few weeks; they currently account for 27 percent of new US cases. And the XBB variant is now dominant in both India and Bangladesh, but there has been no rise in cases or deaths ... as Son #2 would say, for now. 

With tomorrow's being Halloween, perhaps we can put discussion of to mask or not to mask to rest for a day. At one point, masks were illegal in Virginia for people over the age of 16. There may have been a loophole that the mask could not be worn to hide one's identity; I don't recall. In terms of identity, masks have made things interesting the past two years. I would not, for example, recognize the physical therapist I used this summer, and it is likely she would not recognize me. I have enough trouble recognizing people I do now when they are masked, but then I have a hard time with names and faces to begin with. 

Happy haunting!

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 457 (957)

Six of the seven people working early voting's afternoon shift yesterday wore masks. No one commented that we did not need to wear masks around them. In response to that comment on Wednesday, I actually said nothing; I just got the couple the forms they needed to complete. I figured saying nothing said it all. I could have explained that given the number of people with whom I could potentially be face-to-face, I felt better with a mask on, but that would have been giving their comment some validity. As for the number of people with whom I could have been face-to-face, we had over 300 people vote in the afternoon on our way to 563 people voting all day.

Son #1 said he wasn't sure where he'd saved the reference, but there is a theory on covid's origins that combines the Wuhan lab and wet market. What if someone who worked at the lab sold an animal--dead or alive--that had been used in research there to a market vendor. Interesting theory and one I would not discount.

A covid outbreak in Zhengzhou, China has shut down the largest iPhone manufacturing plant; it produces about half of Apple's global supply. Some factory workers are in lockdown, and shops and hotels near the factory are closed. Last year, almost one-third of the $192 billion in iPhone sales was in the upcoming holiday season, making the timing of the outbreak not at all good. Apple has moved some of production to India, but it's not clear if they'll have enough iPhones to meet holiday demand.

And that's about it on the covid front, at least from me. The other items I found were retreads of info I've already posted or so technical that I wasn't going to give a Saturday to trying to make sense of it.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 456 (956)

New York City's official covid case numbers are holding steady at around 2,000 per day, but hospitalizations are on the rise, up to 1,100 on October 24 versus 750 in mid-September. Influenza came early this year along with RSV. Cases of both of these were down during the last two years when people were masking more and distancing themselves more. Some children's hospitals are already at capacity. Emergency room visits for children under the age of five for respiratory issues are at the highest they have been since the initial Omicron surge last winter. A children's hospital in Queens, New York that normally has 175 to 200 patients is up to 250. Some children are spending nights in the emergency room or operating room recovery units. 

A study shows that the rebound effect happens in people not taking Paxlovid. The study tracked participants in a clinical trial and found that 44 percent of those who recovered had symptoms flare up at various times during the four weeks after the infection. While 85 percent said that the symptoms were mild, the other 15 percent reported having at least one symptom that was moderate as opposed to mild. Common rebound symptoms were cough, fatigue, and headache. 

Two not-yet-peer-reviewed studies suggest that the protection provided by the bivalent booster and the original booster was roughly equivalent. There was no real advantage to receiving the bivalent one. Don't let this discourage you from getting the bivalent booster, though; either booster is better than no booster. And as one expert put it, "Don't drop your guard just because you've been boosted."

Working at early voting again this afternoon. In the past sessions I've worked, about half of the election officials have worn masks. I was doing paperwork for one couple on Wednesday; they said they were fine with my removing my mask unless it was an issue I had. Needless to say, the mask stayed in place, as it will this afternoon. I can't say that four to five hours of wearing an N95 mask are particularly pleasant, but it beats the options of my getting it again or my giving it to someone else. At least some of us are in this together. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 455 (955)

I survived a yesterday that included behind-the-wheel training on a Honda Prius and a very wide wheelchair. I am pleased to report that the passenger survived in both vehicles as did I. I served as chief for the afternoon session of early voting; we topped out at 428 on the day. I will do it again tomorrow and try not to remember how stressful last week's 493 Friday total was. 

I only saw a headline so I have no details, but apparently a cruise ship on which "hundreds of people are confined to their rooms" is headed to Brisbane, Australia. I'm having flashbacks to the cruise ships affected at the start of the pandemic. Not a cruise I'd like to be on. 

China is giving an orally inhaled vaccine as a covid booster. Administration began in Shanghai. An orally inhaled vaccine could stop the virus before it reaches the rest of the respiratory system. The vaccine was tested in five countries as well as China. Regulators in India have approved a nasal vaccine that has yet to be used. There are about a dozen nasal vaccines being tested around the world. China has confined around 800,000 people in Wuhan. Thursday was the third straight day of over 1,000 new cases being identified nationwide.  

Any quantitative-AI types out there? NIH is running the NIH Long COVID Computational Challenge. The goal is to use artificial intelligence and machine learning tools to identify covid patients with a high risk of developing long covid. The prize pool is $500,000 going to first, second, and third places as well as up to five honorable mentions.