The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 328 (828)

A not-yet-published report on covid re-infection raises some troubling questions. Data were drawn from US Veterans' Administration records and reflected 5.4 million people who had not had covid, about 250,000 people who had had covid once, and about 39,000 people who had had covid two or more times. Comparing people with multiple infections to those with single ones suggests that all-cause mortality as well as adverse cardiovascular and lung-adverse outcomes doubled for those infected more than once. There was also a three-fold risk of hospitalization for those infected more than once. Increased risk persisted for six months following infection. Through the Delta wave, the rate for re-infections was one percent or less. From Omicron BA.2 and following subvariants, re-infections are increasing due to the progressively increased immune escape of each subvariant. Finally, the current BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants are different enough form the original BA.1 that the BA.1-specific vaccine expected to be released come fall suggests that the vaccine will not be as protective as anticipated. 

The European CDC says that BA.4 and BA.5 will soon become dominant in Europe and lead to a summer surge. The French vaccination chief says that the question is not whether such a surge is coming but how intense it might be and when it might start. Right now, the highest wave is in Portugal. 

The BBC website had quite the article on long covid. Fascinating even if it wasn't all good news. Right now, 20 percent of covid sufferers have symptoms that last between five and 12 weeks. Ten percent have symptoms that last longer. It's estimated that 31 million Americans may have had long covid at some point in the last two years. According to the British Office for National Statistics, long covid affects more women than men, more people living in "deprived areas," more social and healthcare workers as well as teachers, and more people in their 30s and 40s. 

As might be expected, long covid has serious implications when it comes to employment. Eighty-five percent of people with long covid said their symptoms worsened after increased stress and increased mental or physical activity. In the UK, only 44 percent of people requesting job accommodations due to long covid reported receiving them. Some experts think that long covid could be responsible for 15 percent of the US's 11.4 million unfilled jobs. Employers are working to adapt to this new normal. Some experts advise using symptoms rather than diagnoses to determine appropriate job accommodations. This makes sense to me given that the symptoms of long covid vary a lot from person to person. 

And the beat goes on ...

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 327 (827)

North Korea may be ready to declare victory against the not-so-novel-now coronavirus, if you want to believe the story coming from state media. The report is that 18 percent of the 26 million residents have had covid symptoms, but only 73 have died. News or state propaganda? Take your pick. The country is in a bit of a Catch-22, though. If the government says that covid is over, it will make Kim Jong Un look like a great leader. In saying so, though, the pandemic restrictions that have been adopted and that have given the government even more control over citizens would no longer be needed. North Korea may have accepted vaccines from China, though it apparently ignored offers from South Korea and the US.

Broadway theaters are dropping mask mandates as of July 1. Some patrons do plan to keep wearing them. A theater studies professor and Tony Award voter who attends regularly notes, "It's important when you have people packed that tightly together, to control the flow of airborne germs at a time when we don't know what the long-term effect of covid is going to be." I'd have to agree with that. People are packed pretty tightly together in most theaters. I think I'd still be wearing a mask, too.

A bipartisan panel of health experts has called for an overhaul of the US public health system to greatly expand the role of the federal government and create a "national public health system." They'd like the federal government to have the authority to set minimum health standards and coordinate nearly 3,000 state, local, and tribal agencies. The panel says that this will help stop the "archaic approaches to aggregating data," which they say is one reason so many Americans have died during the pandemic. 

A study coming out of China about the low risks of infection with Omicron questions the necessity of the country's zero-covid program. Of the more than 33,000 patients hospitalized after a positive test, only 22 developed serious illness. All of the 22 were over the age of 60 and had underlying medical conditions. 

The number of cases in the US is soaring, but death rates are close to pandemic lows. Still, the daily rate of 314 deaths is more than twice the rate for suicide or car crashes. People's immune systems are said to be stronger due to vaccinations or past infections. As might be expected, older people make up a large share of the deaths. 

Are we there yet, Mom? No, but we may be getting closer. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 326 (826)

I debated whether to number this as day 326, omitting the 325 that yesterday's post would have been or making today 325 as if yesterday didn't exist. The former won since yesterday did, in fact, exist and was not a bad day at all. Lots of fresh air going on walks, takeout from a Turkish restaurant for dinner, catching up with the kids. Yeah, it was a good day.

So, finding coronavirus news today was so difficult I worried the pandemic had ended yesterday while I was vacationing from the blog. You'll see what I mean when you see just how little I have to report today.

Children as young as six months can be vaccinated against covid as soon as tomorrow here in the US. Only 18 percent of parents surveyed said they would get their children vaccinated as soon as a vaccine was available. It's going to be interesting to see how accurate that prediction is. I can imagine more parents wanting their children vaccinated as the school year looms. We shall see.

Macao is said to be something of the gambling center of the world, and the casinos are, for now, remaining open as other businesses close due to a covid outbreak. Macao is part of China, so zero-covid rules. There were 31 cases identified Sunday after eight months with no cases. All 600,000 residents are being tested. Schools, tourist attractions, cultural venues, and non-essential businesses are closing. Restaurants are limited to takeout. Casinos remain open but are not expected to see as much business as usual. The only visitors allowed into the country are those from Hong Kong, Taiwan, or mainland China. Most of these visitors must quarantine for 10 days upon arrival. As for why the casinos are permitted to stay open, over 80 percent of Macao's national income comes from gambling. 

And that, believe it or not, was the news I found. There were a couple of human interest feature stories about topics such as children who lost a parent to covid, but that was about it. I expect that as we move away from the weekend, pandemic news will return, much as we might like it just to disappear. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 324 (824)

I'm declaring a weekend away. Today has been spent making muffins, delivering muffins, picking up an engagement ring  whose missing prong had been replaced, and picking up light rum to go with the watermelon daiquiris we might be making tomorrow. (We had only dark rum.) I'm beat. Tomorrow is Father's Day and a belated birthday, and time to research and write will be limited. Happy Father's Day to all that are or play the role of fathers. 

Until Monday...

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 323 (823)

The FDA has officially authorized both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for children down to six months in age. Pfizer's regimen is three shots; Moderna's, two. These will by no means end the pandemic, but will help more people return to something resembling normal. Parents who have been working from home so as not to send an unvaccinated toddler to day care may now be more comfortable with the idea of day care. I have only ever encountered one parent who was not vaccinating their children. When I helped administer a cooperative preschool, we had one family affiliated with Christian Science. Instead of a doctor's statement that their child had been vaccinated, they provided a signed form on which they agreed to keep their child away from school should any childhood virus start to appear. 

The Omicron variant may actually pose less risk for long covid than the Delta variant. Between December 2021 and February 2022, 4.5 percent of long covid cases were in people who had Omicron compared with 10.8 percent for people who had Delta. In this study, one in 23 people who caught covid went on to have covid symptoms for more than four weeks. Note: The study relied on self-reported data.

Some evidence is emerging that vaccines tailored to fight the BA.1 variant of Omicron may not be very effective against the BA.2 variant and its successors. Can we come up with modifications to vaccines that keep pace with the developing variants? I'd like to think that we can, but I'm not that optimistic. 

Children in Japan no longer must follow mokushoku at school. The term refers to "silent eating." Children were not permitted to talk during meal time, a measure put in place to help stop the spread of covid. Some school districts were worried that no talking was affecting the social and emotional development of children as young as six years. Desks must still face forward and children are asked to speak quietly. Children will continue to wear masks for the pre-meal communal chorus of Itadakimasu, a message of thanks for their meal. Parents are still divided on the mask issue. Some say that removing the ban is premature. While children are no longer masked during meals, they are masked for every other school activity with the exception of physical education. They do not have to wear masks when walking to or from schools.

The day after tomorrow is Father's Day. I will not be giving The Professor a gift, at his request. I did offer to make him a special dessert or dish. He has requested blueberry muffins, so blueberry muffins will serve as a gift. Don't tell him, but I would have made them anyway.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 322 (822)

Dr. Fauci has tested positive for covid. This does not worry me as much as it would have, say, in June 2020. He is fully vaccinated and has had both recommended boosters. He is said to be experiencing "mild" symptoms and will work from home until he tests negative. He has not been in close contact with POTUS or other government officials recently. Still, I worry somewhat that I don't feel more worried about this. While most people are recovering just fine, people do still die from covid. 

And people do still develop long covid. It's been reported that six months after infection, some long covid sufferers experience neurocognitive deficits of the same magnitude as being intoxicated, i.e., drunk. Neurocognitive deficits equivalent to aging 10 years have also been reported. We still don't know how long the "long" in long covid lasts. It would not surprise me if we never know.

The FDA advisory panel unanimously authorized the Moderna vaccine for children under age six, and the Pfizer vaccine for children under age five. There is worry, though, that the clinical trial data may already be outdated. The trials were done before the original Omicron variant, BA.1, mutated to its more transmissible subvariants. The Pfizer vaccination regime is three injections which some experts worry parents will not finish. Many adults have skipped the final dose(s) of the adult vaccine; will they skip the same for their young children? One of the 50 states has not yet pre-ordered any childhood vaccines. You might not be surprised--at least I was not surprised--to hear that it's Florida. 

An article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences claims that the US could have saved over 338,000 lives and over $105 billion in health costs if it had a universal healthcare system. The US had the highest death rate among the large wealthy countries of the world and is the only one without universal healthcare. One outcome of this that was especially bad here is people going to work when sick so as not to lose a job that provides health insurance. 

It seems that the Chinese government is using the national covid app for political purposes. Thousands of people heading to a protest in one city suddenly had their health apps turn red, indicating they were infected and could not enter the city. After they started home, their apps switched back to green, or negative for covid. Saudi Arabia is relaxing some covid rules before the hajj. The one million pilgrims expected will still need to show proof of vaccination, something that will no longer be required of people in their daily lives. Italy has dropped the mask mandate for theaters, sports centers, and entertainment venues. Passengers on Italian public transit must stay masked. Masks are encouraged but not required on airplanes. The deputy health minister explains, "The goal is to live with the virus, and this means returning to social life."

I can't say I'm on board with that for now. Getting there is likely to take, for me, a lot more information on long covid--its causes, outcomes, and any treatments.  

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 322 (822)

Let's get monkeypox news out of the way first. WHO is renaming it. The current name does not follow WHO naming guidelines that discourage the use of geographic regions or animals. When the new name has been announced, I'll let you know.

The FDA advisory panel voted to authorize Moderna's vaccine for children and teens ages six through 17. The FDA must now officially authorize it and pass the approval process to the CDC advisory panel. The FDA advisers are meeting today regarding vaccines for children ages six months through five years. The full FDA may take this on as soon as Friday. The CDC will be in session Friday and Saturday, opening the door for shots to be available as early as next week. Testing on the vaccines in these age groups was done in the day of the Omicron BA.1 variant, not the later, more transmissible subvariants. 

Canadians no longer need to prove vaccination status for travel within Canada. People entering Canada from the US still need to prove that they've been vaccinated; they no longer need to also show negative test results. All travelers must continue to wear masks on federally regulated transportation. Passengers on cruise ships must also remain masked. Truckers passing in either direction still need proof of vaccination. For comparison, 84 percent of Canadians are fully vaccinated compared with 67 percent of Americans, and 60 percent of Canadians have gotten boosters compared with only 31 percent of Americans.

Not much out there today. I wish I could take that as a good sign, but I don't. I think too many people right now are trying to be all three monkeys at once, covering ears, eyes, and mouths for the full effect.