The View from the Hermitage, Day 459

Happy Holiday! Tomorrow is a brand spankin' new federal holiday, Juneteenth. Congress passed it and POTUS signed it, announcing it starts right away. Have a good day!

While we're on sound bites, if the current tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico strengthens, it will be named Claudette and could drop almost a foot of rain on parts of the South. Fortunately, it won't do all this tomorrow and ruin the holiday.

Some Black church leaders are preaching vaccines from the pulpit, phoning parishioners to encourage vaccination, and hosting testing and/or vaccination clinics in church buildings. Choose Healthy Life is a national initiative involving Black clergy, United Way of New York City, and others and just got a $9.9 million grant to expand the range of vaccinations and make "health navigators" currently doing testing and vaccinations permanent positions. Eventually, they hope to address other ailments common in Black communities including heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, AIDS, and asthma. So far they have done over 30,000 vaccinations in three months in 50 churches in New York; New Jersey; Washington, DC; and Atlanta. The grant will expand the efforts to 100 churches in 13 states and Washington, DC, and install the infrastructure for screenings to begin. Quest Diagnostics and foundation are offering funding and testing help. 

South Asian countries are looking for vaccines due to India's, the world's largest vaccine manufacturer, deciding to keep covid vaccines at home for now. Sri Lanka has asked Japan for help, while Nepal has asked for help form Britain, Denmark, South Korea, and the US. The G7 vaccine pledge is too vague to help real planning; it promises future help when the need is now. In Nepal, 1.4 million people aged 65 and older have been waiting for their second shot of AstraZeneca after getting their first one in March. The US has promised 25 million doses, with seven million going to Nepal, but it's not yet clear exactly how many there will be, what type of vaccine they will be, and when they might arrive. Nepal has observed a weeks-long lock-down and one in three tests is still coming back positive. Bangladesh also needs AstraZeneca for second doses. Only 4.2 million of the 168 million population there is fully vaccinated. 

Operation Warp Speed invested money in developing covid vaccines, but did not work on covid treatments. The government is now investing $3.2 billion in the Antiviral Program for Pandemics to develop antiviral pills for covid-19. Why couldn't they have given it a catchier name? Suggestions?

A couple of quickie international notes: Travel into and out of Lisbon has been banned over coming weekends as Portugal sees a spike in cases. I know someone who is supposed to move to Portugal in the next couple of weeks. She has a visa to work toward permanent residency there. I hope she can get in. The US embassy in Kabul has gone into a near-complete lock-down because of a covid spike among the staff. It's killed at least one person and put 114 more in quarantine. Almost all of the cases, 95 percent, are in people who are not fully vaccinated. 

AstraZeneca can apparently increase the price of vaccine even in poor countries once they decide the pandemic has ended. The source I read said what it sounds like--when AstraZeneca decides the pandemic has ended. Forget that WHO originally declared that the coronavirus had become a pandemic. When AstraZeneca wants or needs more money, bam!, the pandemic will be over. 

The New York Times asked more than a dozen public health experts, economists, and bioethicists what the US might have done differently in terms of vaccination. Here are five points they came up with.

(1) We could have delayed second doses to partially protect more people sooner. 

(2) We could have included slightly younger people in the early vaccine rollout.

(3) We could have prioritized by ZIP code for vaccine equity.

(4) Congress would have allocated money for vaccine distribution earlier.

(5) The government needed to pitch vaccines to the public more effectively.

What do you think? I know that Britain delayed second doses and allocated first doses largely by age, starting with the elderly and working younger. Should we have delayed second doses here? Not for first responders, I would say. Medical personnel and those responding to emergencies needed full protection earlier than people like me did. But given the vaccine hesitancy here, would we start second doses as soon as people stopped coming in for first doses? And would priority by ZIP code on its own have done anything? Only if the health people took the vaccinations to those areas and made it easy for people to get vaccinated around work, child care, and other life issues that might get in the way. As for pitching the vaccines more effectively, I don't recall there being any kind of concerted, noticeable program related to vaccination. Was there one that I just missed?

I can't wait to see what kind of holiday happens with only hours of notice. See you tomorrow!

The View from the Hermitage, Day 289

Remember from a day or two ago that one in every thousand Americans has died of covid-19? Here's another one for you: one out of 17 Americans has tested positive for covid-19. I know I do know 17 Americans, and since my mom tested positive, that's my one. Coming up with another 17 might be dicey. There's a reason I haven't really minded hermitting: I am more than a bit introverted. 

Continuing with news of the novel coronavirus, new figures released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control reveal that the infection rate in Wuhan could have been 10 times higher than the official figure. Not to be outdone, Russia has admitted that their covid-19 death toll is more than triple the official number. Are they trying to keep up with or outdo us (the US) when it comes to covid numbers? They have a ways to go.

Finally, almost 1.3 million people passed through airports on Sunday, suggesting that Dr. Fauci's prediction of a surge upon a surge may indeed come to pass. Perhaps I should be thankful that neither I nor The Professor come from a family so tightly knit that holidays cannot be passed in nuclear family pods.

Moving on from the pandemic, someone in the business organization named for The Lame Duck has conceded that he will not, in fact, be inaugurated for a second term. The Washington, DC International Hotel bearing the surname of The Lame Duck has released the rooms it was holding for January 16-20, presumably for Duck supporters to attend the inauguration. 

The week between Christmas and New Year's Day is always a slow one, but it seems especially slow this year. In several years, this has been the week in which The Professor and I journeyed to the north--Iceland or Norway--in search of the Northern Lights. Last year's visit to Newport News, Virginia, in search of its downtown was an aberration, but one planned because we would be traveling to three of the 'Stans in May. This year, neither Iceland nor Norway would be particularly welcoming, and even Canada is out of the question. (One year we do plan to search for the aurora in Yellowknife in Canada's Northwest Territories.)

I have been thinking about those pesky New Year's resolutions I always make. I never seem to get very far with many of them, though I am still doing the first one I consciously set some decades ago, which is to put the laundry away every night. Interesting how that keeps piles of folded clothes from multiplying in one's bedroom space. For many years, I set goals for working out a certain number of days each year. I think I succeeded at all of those, but when I think of such resolutions now, my aging joints remind me of just how old they are. I am, fingers crossed, about to make it through 2020 without major joint surgery. My major joints and even-numbered years share a history. In 2014, I had my torn right rotator cuff and labrum fixed. In 2016, it was the same on my left side. In 2018,  I had my right knee replaced. I vowed then that the left knee was not to be done in 2020. Treating my right knee the way they advised me to after the replacement has taken strain off the left knee. It hurts less now than it did before the replacement.

I did start on a new creative venture last night, though I have no idea what it will end up being. Several years ago, The Professor gave me a set of kimono pockets obtained from Kyoto Kimono. A friend who went to her brother's wedding in Japan send me some silk pieces she bought there. The pockets were in most cases pieces sewn together with an opening, probably why they were called "pockets." I'm ripping the seams and making them all flat pieces, some of one fabric but most of two. I have a general idea what I might do with them, but I want to get them all flattened before I decide for sure.  I expect I'll be back on this topic before the pandemic ends, so enlightenment may await.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 257

I hope that those celebrating it had a nice Thanksgiving without too much excess in the food and/or drink department. We Zoomed with Son #2 and D-i-L Equivalent, but it wasn't the same as having them across the deck or room would have been. On the other hand, they did Act I (the call was split into two sessions) in Emma's room, Emma being their parrot. [As an interesting side comment, they have 11 animals so far--four rabbits, three snakes, two cats, one parrot, and one tortoise. One of the snakes is a Burmese python, the kind that is overrunning the Everglades because the people who did no realize how large they got have been letting them go there.] When it got to be Emma's bedtime, they moved to a different room to let her get her beauty sleep.

As for the menu, it was pretty much the usual except for no sweet potatoes. Of note is that I made the best gravy I have ever made, hands down. The challenge now will be to replicate it for Christmas dinner. Since Son #1 comes here every morning to run, I expect most of the leftovers will be gone by Sunday, with the exception of the cheesecake, which Son #1 would only be caught eating during or after an ultra-marathon. 

On the political front, The Lame Duck finally said that he would vacate the White House should the Electoral College elect Uncle Joe. The election, though, would be invalid due to the massive voter fraud still being investigated. This makes me wonder if, after the inauguration, The Lame Duck (I will need a new name for him then) will still claim to be President and present Uncle Joe as being illegitimate. How this would fly when it comes to Congress might be worth considering. Assuming the Republicans win both Georgia seats--or even one--what might the Senate do? Refuse to confirm Uncle Joe's Cabinet and any advisors requiring confirmation? Refuse to even meet given the person acting as President is an imposter? We could have one hell of a constitutional crisis on our hands. 

I wonder how people in other countries view the US, champion of covid, celebrating Thanksgiving. I'm not sure we should even be allowed to sit at a children's table. The Washington Post ran a photo taken at LAX (Los Angeles International Airport) showing a flight crew walking through what appeared to be the lobby with the entry counters at which a traveler might check a bag. Those counters are all empty. Members of the flight crew are wearing full PPE. No mention was made of this fact, so I can't say whether the crew would continue to wear the PPE while underway. How many science fiction or fantasy films have included such a scene? Seeing a scene like that associated with an Ebola outbreak in a jungle setting would seem perfectly normal. Seeing a scene like that in a modern public airport setting boggles my mind. 

The Virginia case numbers and seven-day rolling average released this morning were down, which did not surprise me given the holiday. I expect they will be on the way back up in tomorrow morning's data dump. The picture is going to become unreliable, though, when the expected shortage of tests happens. As The Lame Duck says, we have more cases because we test more people. This does not mean that we will have fewer cases when we test fewer people. We just won't know any longer how far afield the virus has spread. I read one report that by mid-December we could be seeing, nationally, 3,000 deaths per day. Per day!?!? Remember when 2,977 people died on September 11, 2001? We're on the verge of a September 11 death toll every single day. This really should upset more people than it does.

As for today's being Black Friday, I, as usual, stayed home. I did, however, make two online purchases. One was a 2020 ornament with the arms of the snowflake being the word "fuck." The other was a set of masks featuring the Bangor, Maine Police Department's Duck of Justice. I figured I should have one "theme" mask to wear if I even venture into public beyond the confines of the subdivision. 

Happy start of the Christmas season!

View from the Hermitage, Day 249

I hid from the news this morning by deleting work emails from as far back as 2016. Along the way< I also deleted too many messages from Amazon.com that I'd failed to delete after the package shipped or arrived. I also found several emails related to the Homeowners Association that I really should read. "Should read" means that they are now in Twiggy's HOA folder for later perusal. Or not. I have to be honest here. I also put in time on finding photographs for the holiday photo deal for my mom. The ones from my brother should be coming in the next couple of days, which is good since the facility would like the photos by Monday. Now I have to pick the ones to send. I've sent an email to the facility's Activities Director asking if 12 photos would be too many. I can get the human photos down to four (two kids and two grandkids, with significant others in pictures with kids or grandkid), but there are also about eight animals I know Mom would enjoy seeing. Twelve may be more photos that they're expecting, so I just wanted to know up front. 

I realized that the amount of time needed to finish the needle felted scene for my brother-in-law was really not that long. So I finished it with no increased pain to my wrist. It's ready to send, and I'm ready to try to find some other hand work that's easier on wrists. Here's the scene I was doing; it's based on a greeting card showing the aurora.

This was my first attempt at doing an actual scene in felt, and I learned a lot. I got a compliment from a friend who, in retirement, has become a full-time fabric artist. She said it showed the movement of the lights. Barrie will like it more than the Lee Valley Tools gift card he's gotten from his brother the past couple of years. 

The CDC and just about everyone else is recommending people not plan or cancel family get-togethers for Thanksgiving. Every time I hear that, I run through that two people are coming here, one of whom has had covid-19, after both have been quarantining for 14 days, and we'll be eating outside or in separate spaces. If one of them brings it in, and I get it, it will be my own fault. I can vow, though, that should I get it, no one else will get it from me. I'm going right back to extreme hermiting as of Black Friday. That said, I've lost track of the "Black Friday Starts Now" sales I've seen advertised; there have been quite a few already.

The Lame Duck is inviting Michiganers with some say in the electoral process to the White House. If he thinks he can beg, borrow, or steal enough electoral votes to overturn Uncle Joe's victory, he can't if we don't let him. If he's inviting them to lay some groundwork for a run in 2024, while despicable, that would be legal. I wish he would follow the prediction of one pundit and go to Mar-A-Lago for the weekend but not return. He can try to "rule" from there until January 20. And there is always the 25th amendment to fall back on. I wonder if Pence could pardon him if Pence rose to the Presidency as a result of the 25th amendment's "the president is not doing his job" rationale. 

Virginia covid-19 numbers just keep giving. The seven-day rolling average of number of new cases now exceeds 1,800. Do I hear 2,000? And it's looking as though my predicted 250,000 new cases in one day won't be met this week. I bet it will be sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas, though, sad as it is to say that.

The View from the Hermitage, Day 248

Continuing on the pottering front, I can report that the contents of the hair and make-up drawer were not nearly as varied or as interesting as the contents of the drawer of miscellaneous items I cleaned up yesterday. The only make-up I wear is lip gloss. I gave up mascara because I wore it so rarely that the tube of it usually hit its expiration date after only one wearing. There were a couple tubes of pinkish or reddish lip gloss that I must have bought when considering what it would take to make me look like an adult. I trashed those and kept the more neutral mocha colored one. I kept the brush I use daily as well as a couple of combs with differing densities of teeth. I put all the stray bobby pins back on the bobby pin card and tossed all the clips for holding long hair in place in a bag for donation. Actually I put them in a deluxe shower cap saved from some hotel some time ago. 

I spent more morning time going through a box of papers and stuff. This would go faster if I didn't have to read various things and recall from whence they came. The earrings are giving me side eyes from my left daring me to get back to sorting them. Maybe tomorrow, earrings, maybe tomorrow.

Dr. Fauci was speaking, virtually of course, at the weekly Medical Center Hour held at the local university. The Professor and I live-streamed it as we ate lunch. Dr. Fauci said nothing new or earth-shaking but gave a very nice summary of coronaviruses in general and SARS-CoV-2 in particular. He also explained what the bases of the different vaccine candidates were. He had said earlier that he would take the one from Pfizer. He said that before the Moderna results came out, so I don't know whether he would take that instead. I've said more than once that I won't get vaccinated until Dr. Fauci gets vaccinated, and I want whatever vaccine he got.

The Virginia covid-19 numbers continue to rise. The seven-day rolling average of new cases is now over 1,700. The governor did a briefing this afternoon. He was big on the fact that cases were rising in all the states and territories, but that Virginia was fourth from the bottom in terms of how quickly cases were increasing. I guess that's good news. He did not add any new mitigation measures but reminded listeners of the ones that started overnight Sunday into Monday. When he moved from the virus to the state budget, I stopped paying attention. 

It has occurred to me that The Orange Foolius should get a new name befitting his new status. If I can figure out a way to shorten it, I'd like to go with one I found on that TrumpNicknames subreddit, Lame Duck a l'Orange. That seems to capture the relevant point which is that he lost the election and is on his way out. He may have been hopeful when the board that should certify the vote in Wayne County, Michigan, home of Detroit, deadlocked over the certification.The state board will now be the entity deciding the validity of the votes. Still in Michigan, there are Republicans urging the majority-Republican state legislators to try to appoint their own electors who would, of course, vote for The Lame Duck. I'm thinking that ain't gonna happen.

The card in the mail yesterday was a Thanksgiving-Christmas-New Years card from a friend who had retired and moved from New York to Chicago. He figured that people might like the new address before they addressed their holiday cards. I was motivated, though, to bring up the Christmas card box. As it turns out, I apparently did not buy several boxes of cards at a post-holiday sale last year. I think I'll have enough, though, since I have a box of cards that could pass for Christmas cards and are blank inside. I can figure out something seasonal to write there. 

Also on the holiday front, Son #1 managed to get every item on my holiday shopping list including a fresh turkey. I should be set, or will be until I realize on Wednesday that I for got something. I'll not worry about that now and will deal with it when it happens.