The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 488 (988)

COVID may be about to explode in China. About 90 percent of the population is vaccinated with the primary series of Chinese vaccines. The problem is that those vaccines are not very effective against Omicron, and only 30 percent of people over the age of 80 have gotten even one booster. Infection-based immunity is low; over 30 studies show that the hybrid immunity of vaccination plus infection builds a more complex immunity wall. The six-month picture depicted in an article in Nature Medicine is grim: 11.2 million symptomatic cases; 2.7 ICU admissions or 15.6 times the ICU capacity; and 1.55 million deaths, 75 percent of which would be in people over the age of 60. A COVID outbreak could start to open floodgates. A massive outbreak would be the worst yet for supply chains. It would also open the door to an unknown number of variants.

Quickies: 

Global COVID surveillance is down 90 percent. This means that there will be little warning of a new variant. Even now, it is not clear which form of Omicron is underlying the current wave.  

For the first time in the US, more vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated ones. In August 58 percent of COVID deaths were in people who had been vaccinated or boosted. 

A not-yet-peer-reviewed study reports that the COVID found in New York City's rat population shows susceptibility to Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants. It is not clear if the rats could spread the virus to humans.

A specialized MRI showed lingering brain abnormalities up to six months after someone recovers from COVID. The brain regions affected are linked to fatigue, insomnia, anxiety, depression, headaches, and cognitive problems. Future research may look at patients with long COVID.

The US government has extended the COVID-19 public health emergency through January 11, 2023.

 A CDC study compared 200,000 patients who took Paxlovid with 500,000 patients who did not. The good news is that the Paxlovid group had a 51 percent lower hospitalization rate. The bad news is that only 28 percent of people eligible for Paxlovid were prescribed it.

There are still so many things about COVID that may or may not be related and that, together, add up to a somewhat scary picture. Right now, I'm not sure the end of official pandemic status as declared by WHO will be declared in 2023. And even if it is, we'll be feeling the effects of the coronavirus for many, many years to come.