The CDC is apparently about to relax some restrictions that may already be too loose in their current form. Do they think it's over? If they do, here are a few sobering observations: Half of all covid infections during the entire pandemic have taken place this year. If the current pace continues, over 80 percent of all the cases will ultimately happen in 2022. Some experts define endemicity as when each infected person infects no more than one other person. We aren't even close right now. Some epidemiologists cite an annualized death rate of 100,000 per year. This would make covid the most deadly infectious disease. One epidemiologist suggests that we may be back to covid's being an old person's disease given the difficulty older people have in building up and maintaining immunity. I wonder whether that would make many people take it less seriously than they do already. I mean, those old people are going to die soon anyway, right?
Current CDC guidelines say someone can leave isolation after five days if they have not had a fever for 24 hours and their symptoms are improving. They should wear a tight-fitting mask for the next five days and stay out of areas with high possibilities of transmission. The "however" is that a small study tested 17 patients on their sixth day. Twelve still had positive results on rapid antigen tests, and six of those had culturable virus, in other words, were still infectious. Two had symptoms that were improving, two had unchanged symptoms, and two had never had any symptoms. The results may not be generalizable because of the small sample size and the fact that most of the 17 people were young, vaccinated, and not hospitalized. Still, it's serious food for thought.
The CDC is expected to ease quarantine restrictions for infected people, de-emphasize social distancing, and downplay regular screening testing in schools. The guidelines are just that; they are in no way legally binding. Call me overcautious or even paranoid, but in my humble opinion they're moving in the wrong direction.
Monkeypox moment: It's being declared a public health emergency by the federal government. This will free up some emergency funding and give federal agencies the power to expedite vaccines and drugs and hire extra staff needed to help handle the increased work. It's probably a good thing this is happening now since many experts say we've passed the point at which monkeypox can be contained.
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