The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 215 (715)

I read an article this morning about the number of days of school children have been missing. The point was that even brief school disruptions can cause students to fall behind, especially boys and children from low-income families. In January, over half of American children missed at least three days of school, and 25 percent missed more than a week. Fourteen missed nine or more days. I don't want to be too dismissive here, but those days were not necessarily due to covid. There were more than three days here in my part of Virginia canceled due to snow, and I'm betting that was the case in many other places. We should not add unnecessary days off for covid, but we need to be honest that schools do not close just for covid. 

A vaccine clinic in Kirkwood, a suburb of St. Louis, Missouri, at one point was seeing 900 people daily. Now, there are days on which fewer than 20 people come to be vaccinated. Only 55 percent of Missouri residents are fully vaccinated, and only 22 percent have gotten boosters. The staff is pessimistic about vaccinations picking up again. As cases decline and vaccine mandates and other restrictions are ended or loosened, as people start talking about the end of the pandemic coming soon, there is little motivation for people to get vaccinated. We got this far okay, so why get vaccinated now that things are clearing up. Those people should recognize, but they likely won't, that weekly averages for cases and for deaths are not much different than they were one year ago as vaccinations were just getting started.

Almost half of the 500 million test kits the government planned to distribute have not been claimed. On the first day, over 45 million people requested test kits; now, fewer than 100,000 do each day. Discussion is being given to allowing repeat orders. 

Finally, the Capitol Physician has lifted the Congressional mask mandate just in time for POTUS's State of the Union address tomorrow evening.

There was more covid news to find if I had had time to look. A few unexpected things popped up that I needed to do. Life ... it happens. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 214 (714)

The Road goes ever on and on, as does the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Negotiations are beginning, though I'm not sure they will be successful. It appears that Russia will not treat negotiations as a cease-fire. Pandemic news continues to take a backseat, though there is usually less out there on weekends in the first place. 

Emergency room visits for eating disorders among girls ages 12 through 17 have doubled during the pandemic. As might be expected, covid was the cause of most emergency visits by children, though emergency room visits in general have gone down for children. Visits in 2020 were 21 percent down from 2019; visits in 2021 were also down relative to 2019 but only by eight percent. The reasons for emergency visits changed a lot over the years of the pandemic. Mental health was cited as the reason 24 percent more often for children ages five through 11 and 31 percent more for those ages 12 through 17. Besides eating disorders depression and obsessive-compulsive disorder also accounted for a large share of visits by teenage girls. 

Two new studies, not yet peer-reviewed, report that the coronavirus was likely present in live mammals sold in Hunan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan in late 2019. Some outside scientists remain unconvinced, though. They say there is no direct evidence in support of the market claim, saying the quality of data was insufficient to have confidence in the market-origin theory.

South Korea just had its deadliest pandemic day yet. There are 634 patients hospitalized in severe or critical condition, up from 408 one week earlier. Eighty-six percent of people are vaccinated, but there was still a 201 percent increase in the average number of daily cases over the past two weeks. Hong Kong was taking children, even toddlers, who tested positive away from their parents and put in isolation. The are now allowing some children to stay with their parents. 

March looms and, with it, the second anniversary of WHO's declaration of a global pandemic. It's been a helluva two years. In that time, while I have eaten restaurant food, I have not done so inside a restaurant. While I have visited drugstores for vaccinations (flu and shingles), I have not been inside a grocery or department store. I walked through an indoor shopping mall but only to the storefront being used for covid shots. I have taken care of doctor and dentist visits in the time since my second dose of vaccine. In the same time period, I have gone back to getting my hair trimmed regularly--both my stylist and I wear masks--but have not gotten a pedicure or manicure. Makes me wonder what the next two years will be like.  

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 213 (713)

The new mask guidance from the CDC uses three factors to assess risk. First, how many new covid hospitalizations were there over the past week? Second, what percent of hospital beds are occupied by covid patients? Finally, how many new covid cases per 100,000 people have there been over the previous week? Under these guidelines, the county in which I live remains at high risk meaning people should wear masks in public indoor spaces. Should I feel special that fewer then 30 percent of Americans live in high-risk areas? 

The CDC also offered guidance on school mask mandates, saying that they were needed only in high-risk areas. School mandates are, at the state level, expressly banned in South Carolina and still exist in only Washington, Oregon, California, New York Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Hawaii, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Maryland just gave school districts control over masks, ending a state mandate. I don't know if the parental control over masking going into effect in Virginia Tuesday is equivalent to a state ban; if so, South Carolina won't be lonely any longer. 

From school mask mandates to vaccination data, the New York City Department of Education has released school-level vaccination data. Over half of the city's public school students are fully vaccinated; 59 percent have gotten at least one dose. Those rates vary greatly depending on what part of the city one lives. In District 2, which covers some of the wealthiest parts of Manhattan, at least 80 percent of students have gotten at least one dose. In District 23, one of the poorest districts in the city,only 38 percent of students have gotten at least one dose. The disparity offers a real challenge in rolling back any mask mandate. Nationally, 26 percent of children ages five through 11 are fully vaccinated, as are 57 percent of students ages 12 through 17. 

And that's it on the covid front. The ongoing Russian invasion of Kuwait dominates new coverage, as well it should. The Ukranians remind me of the Viet Cong. People defending their homeland are not easily  defeated. Sort of like covid, eh?

The Road goes ever on and on .. Day 212 (712)

Word has it that the CDC will today issue reformulated guidelines on masking in public indoor settings. The guidelines have been that masking should take place in any community of substantial or high transmission, that is, in 95 percent of US counties. The new guidelines propose a metric that also considers hospitalizations and hospital capacity in addition to caseloads. Under this metric, the vast majority of Americans will no longer be living in mask-advised areas. 

Meanwhile, first vaccinations are at a new low along with the total number of vaccinations. There are fewer incentives right now to convince vaccine-hesitant or vaccine-resistant people to get vaccinated. One doctor noted that even telling someone that without vaccination they would have a 20 times greater chance of dying no longer works. Misinformation is gaining ground in its race against science. That's a big reason that 80 million Americans remain unvaccinated;,75 percent of Americans have gotten at least one dose of vaccine, and only 65 percent are fully vaccinated. Omicron may have milder symptoms, but more Americans are dying now than during most points of the pandemic.

A government-appointed commission in Sweden says that the no-lockdown strategy employed there at the start of the pandemic was "broadly correct" but early measure should have been "more rigorous and intrusive." The report noted that "the Government should have assumed leadership of all aspects of crisis management from the outset." As Ukranians start a mass migration to the west and away from Russian invasion, covid cases will grow among the migrants and also within the countries to which they are fleeing. 

A new study posits that at least 5.2 million children worldwide have lost a parent, grandparent, or family member who helped care for them. The estimate is based on data from 20 countries including India, Peru, and the US and extends through October 2021, meaning that it did not include Omicron cases. A child losing a parent of caregiver is at increased risk for poverty, sexual abuse, mental health challenges, and severe stress.

A new article says that the BA.2 variant is not really new, seems to be easier to catch, and is no more severe than Omicron. The article further said that existing vaccines do work against it, and that the "stealth" descriptor is outdated. One article says "this," and another article says "that." No wonder misinformation may be winning against science. We may need more basic instruction in the scientific method itself.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 211 (711)

As more and more places relax the restrictions put in place to get us through the pandemic, it is good to keep in mind that the end of the pandemic is going to require some adjustment. There really will be a "new" normal. A lot of things will end up being the same as they were in 2019, but a lot of things won't. WHO described the end of the 2009 swine flu pandemic as the "post-pandemic period." There were signs of post-traumatic growth. People grew through adversity and learned to be more resilient. There was, and I can see this one happening again now, a deeper appreciation for everyday things.

The pandemic has expanded our vocabulary of psychological terms. For example, "cave syndrome" refers to the fear of going out among the unvaccinated. I'd rather just stay here in my cave, thank you very much. The "coronaphobic" carries an intense fear of catching the virus. "Covid stress syndrome" refers to the higher levels of general anxiety and depression due to the pandemic; the Covid Stress Scales can be used to assess the level. 

WHO is deliberating on what rules might govern the next pandemic with a target of May 2024. Let's hope we don't need those rules before then. On a much shorter time scale, the CDC is expected to announce new guidance tomorrow including on masks. It's predicted that the CDC will adjust the way it assesses "community levels of disease." Mitigation measures would be proposed tailored to the level of disease in each individual county. 

Around the world, Iceland will lift all remaining restrictions tomorrow including lifting all border measures with no additional restrictions for unvaccinated travelers. Hong Kong is evoking emergency powers to permit doctors and nurses from mainland China to practice in Hong Kong. Anti-vaccine protests in New Zealand continue; acts of protest include tailing the prime minister's van as she visited a preschool. Japan will ease border controls next month. International travelers showing proof of full vaccination will be allowed into the country and will face a shorter quarantine period. WHO is opening a hub in South Korea to train countries to make their own mRNA vaccines. Last but certainly not least, South African data suggests that BA.2 is capable of causing more severe disease than BA.1 Omicron. 

The results of a couple of new polls may or may not be surprising. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll had 46 percent of respondents saying that Americans should "learn to live with" the pandemic "and get back to normal." At the same time, 43 percent think that "we need to do more to vaccinate, wear masks, and test." In a Monmouth University poll, 70 percent agreed with the statement that "it's time we accept Covid is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives." We will need to learn to live with covid eventually and get back to whatever normal might be. I'm just not sure I, personally, am ready right now. If I were, I would be at a quilt show in Hampton, Virginia, helping a friend run her vendor's booth.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 210 (710)

The FDA is considering a second booster shot; some other countries have already started giving one. The concern is that antibody levels wane over time. It is easy to measure antibody levels, but they are far from the only active part of the immune system. B cells and T cells may actually offer years of protection. One expert suggested viewing antibodies as front-line soldiers while the B and T cells are backup defenses. B cells make more antibodies, and T cells can destroy infected cells. People exposed to SARS, an earlier coronavirus, in 2003 have T cells that have persisted for more than 17 years.

White-tail deer have been highlighted as an animal that can catch covid and potentially return it to humans. There are 540 animals considered "most likely" to catch covid; a "short list" includes deer mice, red foxes, and feral cats. Some experts advise developing better systems for monitoring pathogens in other species and better understanding of the link between our health and that of animals. Right now, we give covid to animals more than they give it to us. We need to hope that does not change.

Almost 60 percent of New York voters want more data before the school mask mandate is lifted. Forty-five percent say that the state should have kept in place requiring masks or proof of full vaccination in indoor public spaces, while 31 percent say that mandate should have ended earlier. One-fifth say that the timing is right. I find it interesting that people without children at home are most likely to agree with the plan to review school data in March before making a decision. It would be interesting to know the split for people with children between removing the mask mandate earlier and extending it longer. 

Canada has broken up its trucker protest, but one is still going on in Wellington, New Zealand, a protest described as "increasingly ominous." The protest is entering a third week. Officials have blasted Barry Manilow and James Blunt to try to drive protesters out; protesters have responded with Twisted Sister. A rumor about a US truck convoy has prompted the Department of Defense to approve the use of 700 National Guard personnel and 50 tactical vehicles. Rumor has it that the convoy will be timed to coincide with POTUS's State of the Union address on March 1. 

The European Council has recommended that member nations end testing and quarantine requirements for visitors who have received vaccines authorized by the EU or approved by WHO. They have also recommended relaxing the rules for deciding the "safe travel" status of other countries. The new guideline would be a two-week average of fewer than 100 new cases daily for every 100,000 people. The current ceiling is 75. Given that the US rate is 27, travel from here to Europe should be just fine.

WHO's special envoy for covid worries that Britain's decision to drop all rules including general testing is "a line that is against the public health consensus" and could "create a bit of a domino effect around the world." Finally, WHO now considers BA.2 as a variant of concern and will for now continue to classify it as a form of Omicron.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 209 (709)

I saw another reference to the BA.2 variant, this time a more encouraging one. This reference reported that the studies showing how bad the BA.2 variant is were done on animals, and there is no similar evidence in humans. I'd like for that to be true but, as with so much about this virus, don't want to get my hopes up too high. BA.2 is now responsible for 88 percent of cases in Denmark. People infected with BA.1 can also get infected with BA.2, but it is supposedly rare.

All 7.4 million residents of Hong Kong must undergo three rounds of compulsory coronavirus testing in the month of March. Health workers from Mainland China are coming to help. Schools, gyms, bars, and beauty salons will be closed until late April. Flights from nine countries including the UK and US will remain banned. Interestingly, authorities say they have found covid in samples taken from  packaging of frozen beef form Brazil and frozen pork from Poland, and will increase inspections of imported food. No other country has reported finding such surface transmission; it would be interesting to know what identification technique the Hong Kong authorities used. As for doing somewhere in the neighborhood of 23 million tests in one month, I do wish them luck.

The UK's prime minister says it's time to "get our confidence back." Free mass testing will stop as of April 1. Education settings will no longer have to test participants. NHS and social care staff will no longer need to be tested, though care home residents will. Covid passports will no longer be needed domestically, though they may be needed elsewhere. The Office for National Statistics covid survey will be maintained in a slimmed-down form. Finally, ongoing studies on care homes and antivirals will continue, though it is not clear who will provide funding or conduct testing. 

Iran has returned over 800,000 Astra-Zeneca doses made in the wrong place(s). In 2020, Iran banned all covid vaccines manufactured in the UK or US. Uganda will fine and/or jail people who refuse to be vaccinated. A South Korean study found that people with Omicron are 75 percent less likely to develop serious illness than those with Delta.

I've said before that long covid scares me. Today I read about a woman who had covid five months ago. Her pulse, normally in the 70s, has been jumping to 160 or 170 or even as high as 210 even when she is at rest. All standard cardiac tests are normal. The president of the American Heart Association says, "We are expecting a tidal wave of cardiovascular events in the coming years from direct and indirect causes of covid." Just as it appears we may never vanquish covid entirely, we also may never know all the ways in which it can affect us.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 208 (708)

The FDA is reviewing data concerned with authorization of a second covid booster in the fall. It is not clear if there is an intended target population such as all adults or certain age ranges. It is also not clear if the dose should target Omicron or be general as the other doses have been.

While the FDA looks into a second booster, news has come out that the CDC has collected and withheld data that might have been helpful to state and local health authorities. One example would be the effectiveness of boosters in 18 to 49 year-olds. Experts looking into this have had to use Israeli data in the absence of any from the US.

Covid has served as a "giant catalyst" in terms of different technologies, data, and research. In the words of a virologist, "Covid has stimulated the rapid translation of previous knowledge into practice. Developing science takes many years and needs an opportunity to be implemented. Covid has provided an easier regulatory environment, with fast-tracked trials, so vaccine developments, for example, have been really quick." The mRNA technology underlying the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is being studied for vaccines against plague, dengue, Zika, and Ebola. Sarah Gilbert, architect of the Oxford vaccine, explains, "We've got the cake and we can put a cherry on top, or we can put some pistachios on top if we want a different vaccine, we just add the last bit and then we're ready to go."

It is unclear why 10 to 30 percent of people infected with covid develop long covid,but four factors appear to increase the risk. The first is high levels of viral RNA early in the infection, which sounds to me as if people who get sicker faster might be more at risk. The presence of certain antibodies also raises the risk. It may be that these antibodies don't fight as hard against covid, or perhaps they get in the way of the antibodies being produced to fight the covid. Third is a reactivation of the Epstein-Barr virus. which among other things causes mononucleosis. Finally, there is Type 2 diabetes something we've all likely heard of. 

Around the world, New Zealand will lift vaccine mandates and social distancing measures after the Omicron peak passes. Next door, Australia has reopened its border for fully vaccinated travelers. The first to arrive in Sydney were greeted with plush koalas and kangaroos, jars of Vegemite, and welcome serenades by a quartet of drag queens. South Africa is changing vaccine rules to try to increase uptake. The interval between the first and second doses of the Pfizer vaccine is being cut in half, 21 days rather then the 42 it has been. The time between a second dose and booster is also being halved, from six months down to three. As of March 1, all travelers, even unvaccinated ones, may enter Israel. They must pass two PCR tests, one before departure and one after arrival. Finally, Queen Elizabeth is alive and possibly kicking, and Russia has not yet (but probably will soon) invaded Ukraine. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 207 (707)

It had to be coming, much as I did not want it to. Queen Elizabeth II has tested positive for covid and is experiencing "mild cold-like symptoms." According to the Palace's statement, she expects to continue carrying out light duties. She turns 96 in April and, even fully vaccinated and boosted, is on the very vulnerable end of the spectrum. I'm not sure what has me looking at the news more often--"Is the Queen still alive?" or "Has Russia invaded Ukraine?"

The British prime minister is on the verge of announcing the end of legally having to self-isolate after a positive covid test. He wants to repeal any pandemic regulations that restrict public freedoms. It's a "living with covid" plan under which local authorities will be required to manage outbreaks with pre-existing health powers only.

POTUS has extended the national emergency that was first declared in March 2020. It was due to expire on March 1. As more states roll back more restrictions, I found a framework proposed by a population health professor useful. There are "always measures" such as better ventilation, full vaccination, and staying at home when sick. There are "sometimes measures" to put in when case numbers hit a defined point. These would be things such as mask mandates or proof of vaccination to enter an establishment or event. Finally, there are "rarely measures" such as closing a business or taking schools virtual. 

The US continues to struggle on the vaccination front. We rank as the 67th country in terms of population being "fully vaccinated" and 54th in terms of population having gotten boosters. Deaths over the past two weeks have increased in 14 states. Deaths nationwide are holding somewhat steady at around 2,300 daily. Omicron beats Delta in terms of case numbers and deaths. Given the availability of home tests now as opposed to early fall, Omicron somewhat crushes Delta.

Finally, the Surgeon General and his family have covid with mild symptoms including muscle aches, chills, sore throat, and low-grade fever. As with the Queen, being fully vaccinated and boosted does not mean a person won't catch covid. It does, however, up the odds that any symptoms will be milder. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 206 (706)

I'll be heading out to look at sewing machines (not for me) this afternoon, so I'll just hurry around the world here.

WHO says that countries with surging caseloads may shorten the recommended quarantine time of 14 days. Are we just well ahead of the curve in the CDC's recommendation (highlights mine): 

If you test positive, you should isolate for at least 5 days from the date of your positive test (if you do not have symptoms). If you do develop COVID-19 symptoms, isolate for at least 5 days from the date your symptoms began (the date the symptoms started is day 0).

Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Tunisia will get the technology needed to make their own mRNA vaccines. The technology is one thing; a place to install it is another. I know nothing about how much space it takes to manufacture those vaccines, but if a new building is needed, it may take a while to get started.

Germany is resisting calls to speed up relaxation of restrictions citing a relatively high number of unvaccinated people over the age of 60.

Hong Kong is postponing an election to deal with covid. The government is introducing a plan under which the entire population of 7.5 million people would be tested. The current wave is the worst yet. The previous seven-day peak was 124 cases; the new peak is over 700.

Some 73 percent of Americans are estimated to have some level of immunity to Omicron, a percentage that could rise to 80 by mid-March. The White House coronavirus team says that the US is moving to a point where covid is no longer a "constant crisis."

The CDC says that the US has had over one million excess deaths during the pandemic. These would be mainly from covid but also from overwhelmed health systems and delayed medical care for conditions such as heart disease. hypertension, and Alzheimer's.

New York will not enforce the booster mandate for health care workers; too many are refusing to get the booster. If the mandate were enforced, too many workers would be gone from an already over-stressed system. There is a lot of variance between categories of health care workers, though. Overall, 75% of health care workers have gotten a booster dose. Ninety-five percent of hospice workers have gotten a booster dose, but only 51 percent of nursing home workers have,

Finally, Maine and some other states are showing huge spikes in the number of cases. This is not happening in real time. The spikes are resulting from processing a large number of as-yet-unprocessed test kits. Maine has started doing processing by machine, speeding up the analysis. The head of Maine's CDC notes, "The trends are encouraging, and the trends are favorable. In short, the bullet train that is Omicron is slowing down, and that's a good thing. But we don't let off the brakes while the train is still moving."

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 205 (705)

Continuing the back-and-forth and give-and-take on the BA.2 variant, here is what CNN had in this morning's CNN's 5 Things email (highlights mine): 

"A subvariant of Omicron known as BA.2 is spreading fast and may cause severe disease, research from Japan suggests. New lab experiments show BA.2 is capable of thwarting some of the key weapons we have against Covid-19, including being able to escape the immunity created by vaccines. It also appears to be resistant to some monoclonal antibody treatments currently being used to fight Omicron. BA.2 is highly mutated when compared with the original virus that emerged in Wuhan, China. It has been detected in 74 countries and 47 US states, and about 4% of Americans with Covid-19 now have infections caused by BA.2, according to data from the CDC."

So far, what I've read from the CDC or WHO doesn't seem to be taking these studies into account, even to mention that they have yet to be peer reviewed or to offer some other disclaimer. Hawaii is now the only state that has not yet announced relaxed mask mandates. P(uerto Rice has also not announced any relaxation.) Masks in schools may be the last stumbling block. Here in Virginia, masks will be optional for students at schoolsas of March 1; staff and visitors must still wear them. Masks must also be worn on school buses since those fall under a federal mandate. A child will be able to put a mask on at home, wear it on the bus, then remove it upon arriving at school. Teachers and other staff are not expected to be mask police. 

The Swiss president announced an end to most pandemic restrictions the day before he tested positive for covid. Japan will open its borders to business travelers and students but remain closed to tourists. The US is increasing vaccine assistance to 11 African nations through Global Vax, the Initiative for Global Vaccine Access. The US will provide "intensive financial, technical, and diplomatic support" to countries that so far have been able to increase vaccine uptake. Right now, 12 percent of the population of Africa is fully vaccinated, and an average of six million people are vaccinated each week. That number needs to increase to 36 million, though, to reach the target of 70 percent vaccination by the middle of this year.

At the start of the pandemic, there were more cases and deaths in Democratic areas because they are home to several major international airports. By the end of 2020, though, there was no partisan difference on case numbers or deaths. In early 2021, vaccines became available, at which point covid became an overly Republican illness. A new study estimates that 135,000 unvaccinated Americans who did not need to die did die in the last six months. The death toll is worse in counties that voted for the ex-President by a large margin. Political polarization appears to have warped people's thinking even when personal safety is an issue. Now, however, the partisan gap is no longer growing, possibly because Republicans have more natural immunity due to prior infections. 

Finally, California has become the first state that wants to treat covid as a manageable risk that "will remain with us for some time, if not forever." Now, about BA.2, California....

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 204 (704)

I don't know whether to laugh or cry when it comes to BA.2. I read things such as the one I shared yesterday and the one right here 

BA2: looks likely to get its own Greek letter as it's so different from BA1: has been found to be better at causing disease, more infectious, and better at evading immunity than BA1.  

'Risk of BA.2  for global health is potentially higher than that of BA.1' massive study says

and then read a story that comments (not for the first time) that even if BA.2 is more transmissible that the original Omicron, BA.1, it is not more lethal nor is it resistant to vaccine or natural immunity. I'd be more comfortable if states and other entities would hold off on relaxing things such as mask mandates until we know for sure whether BA.2 is worth worrying about. Re-starting such mandates will not be easy.

From the White House coronavirus response coordinator: "As a result of all this progress and the tools we now have, we are moving to a time where covid isn't a crisis but is something we can protect against and treat." This, as the CDC director hints at upcoming changes to their mask guidance, saying it will be based on measures of community transmission. hospitalization rates or other measures of severity, and available bed space in hospitals. And as the government is planning to make high-quality masks available for children as part of their plan to distribute 400 million free N95 masks. It's looking as if someone thinks we're about there.

Thirty percent of children between the ages of five and 11 have received at least one dose of vaccine. Many parents of children under five have been calling for off-label use of the vaccines because of the delay in getting federal approval. When a physician or office is given permission to vaccinate those who are eligible to be vaccinated, they agree not to use it off-label. In addition, doctors who give off-label shots can be held liable for any adverse reactions suffered by the recipients. 

A new study suggests that having covid can increase one's risk of developing mental health problems including depression, stress and adjustment disorders, cognitive problems such as brain fog, and confusion and forgetfulness. They are also 34 percent more likely to develop opioid use disorders and 20 percent more likely to develop non-opioid disorders such as alcoholism. Finally, people hospitalized for covid are more apt to have such problems than people who suffer from mild covid. Both covid groups are more apt to have such problems that people who have not been infected. 

Quickies: No covid cases were detected within the Olympics closed loop on Wednesday, the first time that has happened. Here's hoping it's not the last. Many experts caution that a drop in covid testing may be coloring global case numbers. Finally, the attorney general of Texas has sued the federal government to strike down federal mask mandates for air travelers, people at airports and passengers on commuter bus and rail systems.  

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 203 (703)

Having gotten through a couple of very full and busy days, I can now get back to reorganizing my sewing room/studio (I do many more things than sewing in there but feel as if "studio" implies I'm an artist of some nature which I don't think I am) which this morning has meant going through a Ziploc bag and a box of cards and photos. I'm in search of photos of my quilts and thank you notes I received for those quilts. I need to get my pre-digital quilt notebooks up-to-date. Needless to say, strolling down Memory Lane has its ups and downs, smiles and, well, no tears yet.

The first covid thing I stumbled across this morning is a bit concerning. It's still in pre-print form which suggests peer review has yet to be completed, but if much of what it says is true, we could be back to being fucked. This is the abstract from an article in ThbioRxiv, the Preprint Server for Biology. Highlights are mine.

characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 BA.2 variant

Soon after the emergence and global spread of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron lineage, BA.1, another Omicron lineage, BA.2, has initiated outcompeting BA.1. Statistical analysis shows that the effective reproduction number of BA.2 is 1.4-fold higher than that of BA.1. Neutralisation experiments show that the vaccine-induced humoral immunity fails to function against BA.2 like BA.1, and notably, the antigenicity of BA.2 is different from BA.1. Cell culture experiments show that BA.2 is more replicative in human nasal epithelial cells and more fusogenic than BA.1. Furthermore, infection experiments using hamsters show that BA.2 is more pathogenic than BA.1. Our multiscale investigations suggest that the risk of BA.2 for global health is potentially higher than that of BA.1.

If it really is more transmissible than its cousin Omicron, able to bypass vaccine-induced immunity, replicate more easily, and be more pathogenic than Omicron, BA.2 is most definitely a variant of concern.

The rate of booster shots given in the US pales in comparison to that of some of our allies. The UK has given booster injections to 55.4 percent of the total population followed by 55 percent in Germany, 51 percent in France, and 44 percent in Canada. Here? According the the latest estimates from the CDC, 27.6 percent of Americans have gotten a booster shot. Couple that with our 64 percent fully vaccinated rate, and we have a very long way to go. In case it helps someone who is vaccine-hesitant to change their mind, it appears that covid vaccination helps reduces the risk of long covid or lessen its symptoms if given to an otherwise-invaccinated sufferer of log covid. 

New cases in the US are at the lowest level since September. More businesses, festivals, cities, and states are dropping or loosening mask mandates. Rumor has it that the CDC may relax its guidance for indoor masking as soon as next week. Deaths, a lagging indicator, remain high with an average of about 2,300 daily. The Coachella and Stagecoach music festivals are taking getting rid of masks as just part of the relaxation. Entry to those two festivals will not require masks, vaccinations, or negative test results. 

A problem with the AstraZeneca vaccine is brewing in the poorest nations. The vaccine has a shelf life of only two-and-one-half months. This is particularly problematic in Africa, especially for doses donated by richer countries. Many vaccine doses arrive so aged that there is not time to distribute them for administration. Many doses have to be destroyed due to expiration. For the week ending February 6, the total number of expired doses declared by 19 African countries was made up by 1.3 million AstraZeneca doses, 180,000 Johnson & Johnson doses, 15,000 Moderna doses, and 13,000 doses of the Russian Sputnik vaccine. Clearly, vaccines need to get to those needing them faster than they are now. 

To end on a somewhat quirky note, Paycheck Protection Program funds have been used for extravagances such as Ferraris, Lamborghinis, jewelry, vacations, and a hit man. Yes, someone used the money she got to put out a hit on her husband, a hit I gather was nipped in the bud.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 202 (702)

I just hit the Publish button for yesterday's post, the one that fell through the cracks yesterday. I feel awash in a lake of littles, by which I mean little things that compete with each other to pile up and bury you as deep as possible. I hate littles. They make me weary. I cannot remember if I seriously proofread yesterday's post yesterday, so please excuse typos and grammatical lapses. 

President Macron of France recently visited Moscow to meet with Russia's President Putin. Macron refused a Kremlin request to take a Russian covid test explaining why the two presidents sat at each end of a table that had to be 20 feet long or longer. Macron did not want the Russians to get any of his DNA, I guess because of the nefarious uses to which they might put it. German Chancellor Scholz has also gone to Moscow to meet with President Putin. Scholz will be tested by a doctor from the German embassy; the Russians may observe the test but won't be getting any free samples.

At least two Hong Kong hospitals have placed patients in beds outside the hospital entrance. There is no room inside for all who need it. Indonesia is also experiencing record high numbers of new cases. Japan just reported its highest number of daily deaths since the start of the pandemic. Japan's Princess Yoko has tested positive and is in hospital with moderate pneumonia. The past two weeks have seen Omicron surge in Eastern European countries. Finally, all remaining covid legal restrictions in Northern Ireland will be lifted and replaced by guidance. Please don't ask me what they mean by "guidance." I'm wondering that myself. 

Cases in the Winter Olympics closed loop are almost down to zero. Monday, there was only one positive test. Saturday and Sunday had three cases each. The number of new cases has been in single digits on seven of the last eight days as opposed to the period from January 24 go February 6 when all the daily case numbers were in double digits. 

Virginia is about to (if it hasn't already) pass a law banning school mask mandates and making masks totally optional. Our new governor is sure to sign it. Right now, mandates are banned in nine states and fully allowed in six other states. Those counts are, of course, subject to change at a moment's notice. 

I visited My Mom today. She still tests negative but there were several more positive tests on today's weekly round of testing. That means residents will be eating in their rooms for another two weeks and social activities are canceled. Mom was not happy about the meals at least. I don't think she's really in to the social activities. Mom is still one of the few residents to wear a mask when outside of their units. I don't think they're going to be covid-free for quite a while.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 201 (701)

I'm giving kudos and a plug to the group Back to the Vax. Founded by two Canadian women, it is a support group for one-time vaccine-skeptics who have had a change of heart. The goal is to help families find evidence-based answers to their questions. Currently, almost a third of American parents are opposed to vaccinating their children. Back to the Vax is educational rather than confrontational. One of the founders describes it: "It's almost a knee-jerk reaction to stop them in their tracks and correct them, but that's only going to further alienate them. You have to listen to them with an open mind. Hear them out fully, and say, 'Oh, let me look into that for you.' They may not change their mind overnight, but by taking your time, you're ensuring that they could change their minds. But if it becomes this conflict and it's a negative experience, you're basically closing that door off completely." It pays to remember that, on average, women make about 80 percent of the health care decisions for families. The value of this group may be best described by the comment that the decision is not vaccine or nothing but vaccine or covid. 

Fake testing sites have been found in too many states to list here. One group with multiple sites bills itself as "Center for Covid Control." Real health professionals advise the following guidelines to avoid being fooled. Get a referral from your health care provider; if they are not doing testing, ask them where you should go. Check if a site is listed on a local health department's website. Finally, call the police or sheriff's office to check the legitimacy of an organization. They should know if there have been complaints about a testing center.

Things are not rosy in Hong Kong right now. At the start of February, there were around 100 new cases daily. By February 13, there were 1,347 cases; by February 14, 2,071. The preliminary figure for February 15 is 4,730. ICU beds are at 90 percent capacity; over 3,600 people are hospitalized. This even as 83 percent of the population ages 12 and older have gotten two doses of vaccine, with 74 percent having gotten one. The problem is that the vaccination rate for the older demographic is under 50 percent. Many older people were advised, early on when there were no cases in Hong Kong, not to risk the side effects of the vaccine. This group is not coming in to be vaccinated now. At the other end of the age spectrum, children ages three through 11 can be vaccinated as of February 15. Medical experts warn that there could be 28,000 daily infections by the end of March.

A few quickies:  Doctors frequently advise long covid patients to work out, but many of the patients say this makes them feel worse. The feeling is called "post-exertional malaise." In a study of 3,762 long covid patients, 89 percent reported having felt this. Ontario is loosening covid restrictions while saying that the motivation is declining case numbers not the protests. Proof of vaccination will no longer be required to enter indoor spaces, but mask mandates will remain in effect for now. Camilla, Prince Charles's wife, is self-isolating after testing positive for covid. This is her first infection, as opposed to Charles's being infected for a second time. This of course raises questions about whether Queen Elizabeth might have been infected when she met with Charles two days before his positive test. I realize she's almost 96 and that people that age can die quite easily, but I would hate to see it be because of covid. The pandemic itself is bad enough, but please God, save the queen.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 200 (700)

Kern County, in Southern California not too far from Los Angeles County, has invited deputies in LA County who might lose their jobs for not being vaccinated to apply to work in Kern County. There, in the last two weeks, 53 residents have died of covid. There are currently about 4,000 unvaccinated deputies in LA County, so there would be lots for Kern County to consider. Kansas and Tennessee have also invited unvaccinated law enforcement officers from around the country to come there and work. 

Covid deaths are up in 26 states. Deaths here in Virginia have gone up 260 percent in the last two weeks. Mississippi has seen deaths go up 209 percent over the same time period; South Carolina's deaths also went up over 200 percent. Nevada, where deaths have gone up 37 percent in the last two weeks and where only 59 percent of the population is fully vaccinated, just ended mask mandates effective immediately. There, and elsewhere, mask mandate decisions have been made on the basis of case numbers rather than deaths. Nationally, new daily cases are down about 75 percent from the mid-January peak but are still in six digits. 

Norway is adopting a "live-with" approach to the coronavirus. The prime minister explains, "This is the day we have been waiting for....The coronavirus pandemic no longer poses a major health threat to most of us. The Omicron virus causes far less serious illness, and we are well protected by vaccines." In Norway, 81 percent of the population have had at least a first dose, 75 percent are fully vaccinated, and 53 percent have gotten a third, booster dose. Other changes include that only adults with symptoms need to be tested. Those infected only need to remain at home for four days. Children who are ill should remain at home until they have been fever-free for 24 hours. Finally, there are now no travel restrictions except to Svalbard. 

I wish that the Norwegian prime minister's comment about being well protected by vaccines applied here. Vaccination rates in West Virginia, Alabama, and Kentucky are well below the national averages, and they have the highest recent per capita hospitalization rates. It seems that the vaccine-resistant will stay resistant, and the only new vaccinations that might happen would be those of children under five when such authorization is given. 

It's Super Bowl Sunday which means I'm making chili even if it's just The Professor and me here to eat it. We'll watch some of the game paying the most attention to ads, several of which I've already seen online. We can then bid football farewell until August. I wonder if we'll be officially endemic by then.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 199 (699)

Taking a personal day to deal with personal things. I'll be back tomorrow for Day 700.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 198 (698)

States continue to relax restrictions. Nevada's governor announced an immediate end to mask mandates, calling it a"major step moving forward for people." The CDC continues to recommend masks be worn in areas of high or substantial risk, which right now covers 99 percent of all US counties. New York City could fire 3,000 municipal employees, less than one percent of the city workforce, today for not getting vaccinated. Unvaccinated employees have been on unpaid leave for months. Some could get their first dose of vaccine today and remain employed.

As the Canadian trucker protest enters its third week, Ontario has declared a state of emergency with a plan to end "disruption, intimidation, and chaos." The premier warns, "There will be consequences for these actions, and they will be severe." Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan have begun to loosen covid restrictions. Ontario has said that it might.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says that he aims to abolish all covid restrictions including isolation after a positive test. Other European countries are relaxing restrictions but none are getting rid of all of them. Scientists in those countries express concern over what Britain might do. A German infection prevention specialist says, "It strikes me a quite brave to lift all restrictions at the same time." Leaving some in place would help slow the spread. A Spanish scientist calls Britain's move premature, while Italy says it is a political rather than scientific choice. A New Zealand scientist notes that "The science is absolutely top--it's just the policy translation has been shockingly poor." Finally, an Australian virologist offers what I think might be a good one-line description of the pandemic as a whole:

"It's very difficult to predict this virus, though. It has made a fool of many of us."

Will an affirmative answer to my "are we there yet" question make us even bigger fools? The WHO regional head for Africa who has said we are entering a new phase of the pandemic also says that there will be more variants of concern. The questions then are how serious the concern might be and are we ready for them?

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 197 (697)

Someone asked a while back, a long while back I think, how long I intended to keep this doing this daily blog. One of my replies was until WHO declared the pandemic over. We may be getting there sooner than I thought. WHO's regional director for Africa just said, "The pandemic is moving into a different phase. We think that we're moving now, especially with the vaccination expected to increase, into what might become a kind of endemic living with the virus." WHO's regional director for Europe says that continent could soon enter a "long period of tranquility." Mandates and restrictions are dropping almost like flies here in the US, though this hasn't convinced the CDC that they should be. 

Cases are dropping in the US but somewhat unevenly, with an overall 61 percent drop in the per capita case number over the last two weeks. Deaths are still rising, but the rate is slowing. Kentucky, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia reported their highest number of cases in mid- to late January. Average deaths are high in California, Florida, and Washington. In fact, Washington has reported more deaths in the past week than in any other seven-day period in the pandemic. Washington is also ending its outdoor mask mandate and could set a date to end their indoor mask mandate next week. 

Of course, saying that things are back to normal and mask mandates, no longer needed will make the vaccine-hesitant more vaccine-resistant. If things are back to normal and no one needs a mask, then why should people get vaccinated? In my humble opinion, things are not back to normal. Dr. Fauci has said that the pandemic's being under control would mean 10,000 cases per day in the US. Right now, we're over 200,000 per day. 

The pandemic is seeing more and more college students drop out. Retention is generally measured by how many first-year students return for a second year. At least that is the most common spot for students to drop out. Some 2.6 million students started college in fall 2019. Community colleges saw a 3.5 percent drop from 2019 to 2020. That looks good when the overall rate was 26.1 percent or some 679,000 students.

A couple of quickies. The pandemic has caused a migration of rats from restaurants to houses as they follow the food. There were a record-high 12,638 complaints to the District of Columbia's hot line for reporting insect or rodents problems. Calls are up 130 percent since 2017. Prince Charles is isolating after testing positive. He is fully vaccinated and boosted and also had covid before, in March 2020. He did meet with the queen recently, but so far she is testing negative. In terms of something you may not want to learn, Charles's pet name for Camilla is Mehabooba which means "darling" or "beloved" in Urdu.

The Road goes ever on and on --- Day 196 (696)

The truck protests continue across Canada--Quebec City, Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg, Vancouver--and around the world--Australia, New Zealand, and perhaps the US in the near future. The original Canadian one started to protest a requirement that drivers entering Canada be fully vaccinated or face testing and possibly quarantine. It has grown to the point of demanding an end to all health restrictions including mask and vaccine mandates, lockdowns, and capacity limits. The numeric growth of the protest is staggering. The Ottawa police chief offered, " The oath of office that I and my officers swore was never intended to deal with a city under siege, a threat to our democracy, a nationwide insurrection driven by madness. We do not have sufficient resources to adequately and effectively address this situation while adequately, effectively providing policing in this city." Potential hate crimes connected to the protest are under investigation.

Because the demands have widened to include the national response to the pandemic, the prime minister commented, "This pandemic has sucked for all Canadians." Finding this quote made my morning. Can you imagine Uncle Joe getting away with such a line here? The Professor noted that our previous president would never, ever have uttered such a line. It would have been to the effect that this pandemic has sucked for him personally.

The world went over 400 million covid cases Tuesday, probably a drastic undercounting. We only passed 300 million cases a month ago. At the start of the pandemic, it took over a year--from late 2019 to January 2020--to hit 100 million cases. Seven months later, that had doubled to 200 million; six months after that, cases had doubled again, to the current 400 million. 

Some Asian countries are now seeing surges in response to the recent Lunar New Year holiday. South Korea recorded almost 50,000 cases Wednesday, up about 13,000 from the day before. Cases have more than doubled in Singapore and are up more than fivefold in Hong Kong. Cases in Indonesia are up more than elevenfold. 

Massachusetts has joined the states relaxing or removing mask mandates. The Massachusetts school mask mandate has been lifted as of the end of this month. The school mask mandate in New York is set to expire in two weeks; whether it will be extended is open to question. In the meantime, the indoor mask mandate has been dropped, and businesses are no longer required to check for proof of vaccination. 

In addition to the relaxation of mask and capacity mandates, today's news contains more than several references to the pandemic's winding down or becoming endemic. Dr. Fauci says that the US is exiting "the full-blown pandemic phase" and that decisions on restrictions will more and more be made locally. As for the pandemic becoming endemic, it should be noted that "endemic" does not mean "end." There is a very interesting article from The Atlantic on endemicity here. If you choose not to read it, here are some of the highlights. Endemicity says nothing about a total number of infected people in a given time period nor how severe those infections will be. Nor does it define how much death or disability will result. There is no guarantee that life will return to pre-pandemic normalcy. Endemic disease can be innocuous or severe and it can be common or rare. The key characteristic is that there is some predictability in the average number of people who get and transmit infection in a set time period.

You say toe-may-toe, and I say toe-mah-toe. You say en-dem-ick, and I say pan-dem-ick. Are we there yet? I don't think so, though I will concede that we are getting closer. I might be more positive had I not gotten the news that there have been or are a total of ten new covid cases at the assisted living facility where my mom lives. So far, symptoms are none or very mild. Since that outbreak was not anticipated, I'd say we're still working our way to a crystal ball that offers the predictability mentioned above.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 195 (695)

Several Democratic governors are relaxing or removing mask mandates in their states. Oregon and California are relaxing the requirement that masks be worn in indoor public spaces. New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, and Oregon are removing the mandate that masks be worn in schools. In some cases, district school boards or superintendents may still require masks be worn, unlike here in Virginia where the new, Republican governor has said there can be no school mask mandates period. If masks become optional, consider the case of a parent's wanting a child to wear a mask at school while the child prefers to get off the bus and stuff it into a pocket. Should teachers be given the names of children whose parents wish that they stay masked? Will teachers be expected to be mask police in addition to all the other things they do or are? It will be interesting to see if such a quandary arises.

The jury is still out on just how helpful masking is. Do its benefits outweigh its risks? How different are children and adults when it comes to masks? Using a cost-benefit model, it is clear that the benefits of vaccines outweigh the risks. Things are not so clear-cut when it comes to masks especially for children. The US stands out for its use of masks on young children. The EU health agency does not recommend masking for children under the age of 12. Opponents of masks in schools say that masking brings with it difficulties in understanding teachers, teachers' inability to see children's faces, and a slower development of social skills. Optional mask-wearing at least provides one-way protection. Suppose, though, that there is a surge of a new, worse variant. How easy would it be to re-impose mask mandates?

Only one in 10 Americans thinks that covid will be eradicated by this time next year (I don't think covid will ever be eradicated as smallpox was). A survey of 1,049 adults conducted February 4-7 found that 21 percent of the respondents thought things should open up, that there should be no mandates or requirements. By political party, 43 percent of the Republicans felt this way compared with three percent of the Democrats. Almost 30 percent of respondents favored moving to open back up but with precautions. That total contained 14 percent of Republican respondents and 34 percent of Democratic respondents. Mostly keeping precautions an requirements in place for now was the choice of 23 percent of respondents, and 21 percent favored increasing mask mandates and vaccine requirements. A total of 51 percent--25 percent of the Republicans and 72 percent of the Democrats--supported businesses requiring proof of vaccination for entry.

The BA.2 variant has now been found in 57 countries and is dominant in several including Denmark, India, Nepal, the Philippines, and Qatar. In other international news, Japan just set a record for daily deaths, 155. Poland has delayed indefinitely the deadline for teachers, police, armed forces, and firefighters to be vaccinated, saying that it can't meet the current deadline. In Britain, 26 percent of employers now include long covid as a main cause of long-term sickness absence. Chinese scientists say they have developed a new covid test as accurate as PCR and that gives results within four minutes. After the delay in the start of yesterday's Canada-Russia women's hockey game due to a wait for test results, it's too bad the Chinese haven't switched over to this new covid test.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 194 (694)

A British scientist who was knighted in 2014 for service to medical statistics said that he did not take the pandemic seriously enough when it began. He then added that an analysis he did shows that the pandemic has been a lifesaver for younger people. It seems that 300 fewer people between the ages of 15 and 30 died during 2020 than would have been expected to die even including the 100 that died from covid. Young people were not driving (too fast) or drinking or in general going out. The scientist did concede that this was not necessarily a good thing. Maybe this is a very thin silver lining to the cloud of the pandemic. Or maybe it isn't.

France, Spain, and Denmark will require visitors who finished their vaccination cycle over 270 days ago to have gotten a booster or they will be considered unvaccinated. Austria has a similar rule with the time limit set at 180 days. As might be expected, children are going to be a sticking point. For example, children under age 12 cannot yet be vaccinated in the UK. The situation reflects something of a "jigsaw puzzle of restrictions" one with which some travel agents don't want to deal.

The US trails eight other high-income countries--Belgium, Britain, Germany, Netherlands, France, Canada, Sweden, and Australia--in the share of the population who have gotten booster shots. Fourteen percent of Americans over the age of 65 who are eligible for boosters had not gotten one as of mid-January. The US also sits well above those other eight countries in terms of the number of deaths per capita. As an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard's school of public health put it, "For a country which has a vaccines-only strategy, we're not very good at vaccination."

A scientist at Oxford University who worked on the AstraZeneca vaccine says that scientists and politicians damaged the vaccine's reputation and "probably killed hundreds of thousands of people" adding that, "They damaged the reputation of the vaccine in a way that echoes around the rest of the world." Because the AstraZeneca vaccine has yet to be authorized for use in the US, I don't know that much about it. I will say, though, that what I have read about the various vaccines available around the world, I might have been more comfortable getting AstraZeneca than Johnson & Johnson.

Australia will open to all fully vaccinated visa holders including tourists on February 21. Visa holders who are not fully vaccinated will face quarantine requirements and need to have received a travel exemption. This will not actually open all of Australia to visa holders and tourists given that states control their own borders and can impose their own requirements.Western Australia, for example, will continue to control tightly who can enter. 

Looking for an exemption from vaccine requirements? Online documents are readily available. One online "ministry" provides a letter from an "ordained Pastor" for only $195. They call it part of a vaccination "concierge program." Dr. Fauci continues to draw the ire of Republicans. Mehmet Oz, otherwise known as Dr. Oz, is running for the US Senate in Pennsylvania and wants to debate not his opponent in the primary but Dr. Fauci. And the governor of Florida is supporting the sale of "Freedom over Fauci Flip-Flops." It gets a wee bit weirder every day.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 193 (693)

Passing on blogging today. Instead, I'm typing hyphenated words in yesterday's Washington Post into a list from which Son #1 and I can fashion entries for the Style Invitational humor column running this week. I won a few things in the Invitational way back when. When Son #1 gave it a try and succeeded admirably--he won one week, something I never did manage, though I have an entry in the top ten of all-time list put out by the man who started running it--the woman who now runs it noted that I had not entered in several years and should pick back up. And so I have. I've yet to score on any level, but it keeps my mind active. The current contest, if you want to give it a try. If you do and beat me, that's quite all right. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 192 (692)

Yesterday, I mentioned that the US had recorded at least 900,000 covid deaths. Imagine if Indianapolis, San Francisco, or Charlotte (North Carolina) became empty overnight. That's what losing 900,000 people in one fell swoop would resemble. I wondered how long it would take to hit the one million mark. The dean of the Brown University School of Public Health explains, "We got the medical science right. We failed on the social science. We failed on how to help people get vaccinated, to combat disinformation, to not politicize this. Those are the places where we have failed as America." Never underestimate the what? Stupidity? Gullibility? Nonchalance? of the American people. I would invoke my brother-in-law's "Half the population has an IQ under 100," but I don't believe that all vaccine-hesitant or vaccine-resistant people are idiots. Some are, but not all. That said, we may never move far beyond our current 64 percent full vaccination rate.

A new push is on to protect immunocompromised people from covid. The CDC has shortened the waiting period between the third and fourth doses of Pfizer or Moderna from five months to three. Someone who originally got the Johnson & Johnson vaccine should now get two additional doses rather than one. This follows seeing a large number of breakthrough infections in immunocompromised people. The CDC also gave doctors permission to give immunocompromised patients the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine outside the recommended schedule "where the benefits of vaccination are deemed to outweigh the potential and unknown risk."

CDC data suggest that boosters are most beneficial to older people. The booster does not seem to add much benefit to younger Americans; their first shots greatly decrease the risk of hospitalization and death. The caveat is that the data only go through the end of December and so miss most of the Omicron surge. Boosters aside, a virologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York explains, "The real problem is the carnage among the unvaccinated." I do like the use of the word "carnage" there. 

A recent study used self-reporting but found that people reporting that they always wore face masks or respirators such as N95 masks in public indoor settings were significantly less likely to test positive later. In other words, "...wearing a mask, wearing it consistently, will reduce your risk and the higher quality mask that you wear, the better protection that you have." 

Several members of Congress are pushing for a "high-level independent" commission to investigate the origins of the coronavirus and the response to it from both the previous and current administrations. It would be similar to the commission that investigated the events of September 11, 2001. It will likely take a while for the proposal to be formally put forward, but so far it does have bipartisan support. It may be the only thing that has bipartisan support, at least that I know of.

Olympic update: Around 71,000 covid tests were conducted at the Olympics on Thursday. There were 21 positive tests. To the extent that the closed loop is working, the number of cases within it should fall as time goes by. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 191 (691)

I forgot to include a little WTF item yesterday, so I'll lead with that today. I got two convection oven cookbooks for Christmas. Looking for recipes to try, I came across Zucchini-Flavored Chocolate Cookies. Now, I've made, had, and liked zucchini bread, but why zucchini mixed with chocolate, with a name implying that the chocolate taste is secondary to the zucchini taste? I'm sorry. That's one recipe I will not be trying.

Olympics covid update. Through yesterday, 308 people had tested positive inside the closed-loop or on arrival at the airport. Athletes or team officials constituted 111 of the positives. Not counted anywhere, though, are the athletes who tested positive before leaving their home country and decided not to come if their event was scheduled such that they would not be recovered in time to complete. 

"The path to freedom is the vaccine mandate." So says the Austrian Chancellor as the vaccine mandate is signed into law. Letters will be mailed to all citizens giving them one month to comply. There are a couple of exemptions including pregnant women, people with a medical reason such as an allergy, and people recently recovered from covid. Beginning in mid-March, police will conduct random checks of vaccination status. Currently, 76 percent of those coming under the mandate are already fully vaccinated. Germany is considering a vaccine mandate. Italy has one for people over 50, while Greece's covers people over 60.

I have been trying not to cite numbers that I know have a fudge factor, but I can't not include that the US death toll is now over 900,000. Given that the last 100,000 deaths have been since December 13, when will we hit 1,000,000? I'd like to think that a million deaths would slap some folks who aren't yet vaccinated and motivate them to get vaccinated. Four of the five states with the highest shares of population-adjusted deaths over the past month have less than 60 percent fully vaccinated. At the top of the list is Tennessee, with 73 covid deaths per 100,000 people and 52.8 percent fully vaccinated. At the bottom sits Hawaii, with 10 covid deaths per 100,000 people and 76 percent fully vaccinated. The fact that Hawaii is an island probably helps.

The Guardian asked some leading scientists what they'd gotten wrong during the course of the pandemic so far. One said he had not expected the vaccines to be successful. Another regretted having supported school closures. A third said that at the outset he felt scientists should not be involved with policy-making. As might be expected, there was one who doubted that masks would be valuable. Skipping over several, I think my favorite was the scientist who said he'd been wrong in predicting the course of the pandemic because of the unpredictability of human behavior. Really? He must have slept through some psychology classes.

There are two worrisome trends, transportation-wise, that have developed during the pandemic. One is how fewer customers there are on public transit, putting some systems in dire financial straits. Commuter rail ridership has seen a 79 percent decline. Trips on all modes of public transit are around half of what they were before the pandemic. Car-related deaths meanwhile are up 27 percent. Some of those deaths may have been people who otherwise would be taking public transit. Go figure.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 190 (690)

New Zealand will gradually--over about nine months--re-open its borders starting at the end of February. The first people allowed in will be vaccinated New Zealanders and visa holders entering from Australia. After that, vaccinated New Zealanders and visa holders coming from the rest of the world may enter. Finally, all other vaccinated visitors. Those who enter must still quarantine for 10 days, but it can be at home or a chosen place, not at a government-run facility. The goal is to be open to "all other international visitors" by October. 

There is a solution in Korea to the problem of eating and drinking while wearing a mask. That solution would be a kosk. "Ko" is from the Korean for "nose," and "sk" is from "mask." It covers just the nose, leaving the mouth available for consumption purposes. Some come in two pieces, one for the nose and another for the mouth. Since some studies have suggested that the nose is the easiest route the virus can use to enter a body, a kosk may make sense never mind how funny it looks.

Virologists are trying to determine the origin of coronavirus fragments found in New York City wastewater. The fragments are being called "cryptic lineages." The "cryptic" is because the fragments show a mutation pattern that hasn't been reported in human patients. Some suspect that the lineages could be coming from virus-infected animals such as rats. The lineages could also come from humans whose infections have yet to be analyzed genetically. Finding the source is important, and the search for it continues.

Soldiers who have yet to be vaccinated will be discharged immediately. They will not receive involuntary separation pay and may have to return incentive bonuses and other special compensation. Last week, the Navy discharged 45 sailors. All were given honorable or entry-level discharges for disobeying a direct order. Almost half were in their first six months of service.

In the weeks between January 19 and February 1, covid cases rose in only five states_ Maine, Alaska, Washington, Idaho, and Montana. They dropped over 200 percent in Wisconsin and Rhode Island. Are we there yet? No, and it's not clear how things will proceed if we are. Simply saying that the pandemic is over, that covid is endemic, will not be easy. Different countries will reach that point at different times. Even different areas of the same country may reach that point at different times. And what if we do reach that point and then become complacent? Something worth considering. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 189 (689)

It hasn't yet been peer-reviewed but a study in England showed that exposure to just one nasal droplet was enough for a person to become infected with covid. The study involved 36 healthy, young volunteers and used a viral strain before the variants we have now emerged. People developed symptoms quickly, within two days, and were most infectious five days in. Infection first appeared in the throat but spread to the nose. I find this fascinating. The researchers are planning more, similar challenge trials. As for the a single nasal droplet, well that's an argument for making sure your mask covers your nose.

Pfizer has responded to the FDA's request for data on its vaccine given to children under five. The dose for a child ages six months through four years would contain one-tenth of the dose given to adults. FDA review will start on February 15. If approved by the FDA, the CDC will review the data. If approved by the CDC, it will be up to parents as to whether their children under five are vaccinated. Infants under the age of one are the most vulnerable to severe illness in that age group. The trial data showed a strong antibody response in children between six months and two years old. Older under-fives had a lesser response. A recent survey suggested that 31 percent of parents of children under five would get them vaccinated as soon as possible. At the same time, only 22 percent of the children ages five through 11 are fully vaccinated, and only 30 percent have gotten at least one dose. It seems that two-thirds of parents not getting their children vaccinated are worried about those children having future fertility problems.

Kyoto, the ancient capital of Japan, is not sure that it wants tourists back after two years without them. In 2021, 245,900 tourists visited Japan, a 99.2 percent drop from pre-pandemic levels. One Kyoto resident explains, "Kyoto isn't a particularly big city, so too many foreign tourists put pressure on things like public transport. They were great for business, but it was difficult to live a normal life with so many of them milling around. Part of me really wants them back, but another part of me loves the peace and quiet." I guess every silver lining hides a cloud.

Eleven people associated with the Olympics tested positive and showed symptoms; those people are now in the hospital. None is in life-threatening condition. In the last 24 hours, nine athletes and 23 team officials have tested positive. Since January 23, there have been 232 positive tests in conjunction with the Olympics.

WHO's director is concerned about European countries relaxing restrictions even as covid case numbers are rising. He cautioned against thinking that vaccines prevent enough transmissibility that restrictions are no longer needed, saying that "nothing could be further from the truth." He went on, "More transmission means more deaths. We are not calling for any country to return to so-called lockdown. But we are calling on all countries to protect their people using every tool in the toolkit, not vaccines alone. It's premature for any country either to surrender, or to declare victory."

Those who were hoping that Omicron's being less severe would help the US look better in comparison with other large, high-income countries will be disappointed. Deaths in the US are now higher than at the peak of Delta and over two-thirds as high as last winter's pre-vaccine peaks. The US has vaccinated fewer people than other large, high-income countries and is even further behind on boosters, discovering a large segment of the population is resistant to public health precautions. 

On a totally unrelated subject, the NFL team formerly known as the Redskins and, following that, the Washington Football Team, is re-branding as the Commanders. One wonders if this has anything to do with POTUS's new puppy who just happens to be named Commander. Is Dan Snyder hoping to flatter Uncle Joe into a tax break or other benefit? Personally, I wanted the team to remain the Washington Football Team, that name being a lot cooler than "Commanders."

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 188 (688)

WHO is among the nominees for the Nobel Peace Prize to be announced in October, joining Sir David Attenborough, Greta Thunberg, and Sviatlana Tsikhanoskaya, a Belarusian activist, among others. I wonder when the deadline for nominations might be, because there are seven or eight months left that might yield a new contender. Of the four above, I'm not sure which one I'd pick as a favorite either for the bookmakers or for me. 

Happy New Year and welcome to the Year of the Tiger. The beginning of the new year is often the most traveled weekend of the year as people return home for celebrations. Travel in China and Southeast Asia this year is said to be way down, which is not surprising given the pandemic situation. 

Cuba is vaccinating infants against covid as soon as they are born. Federal regulators here in the US have supposedly been encouraging Pfizer to apply for Emergency Use Authorization for its vaccine given to children ages six months through four years. Pfizer may submit application materials tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Moderna vaccine has gained full FDA approval for ages 18 and older. It seems that those two vaccines now have names other than "the [company] vaccine." Moderna's vaccine is called Spikevax, while Pfizer's is called Comirnaty. I must admit that Spikevax is a much sexier name than Comirnaty unless there is some meaning I'm missing there. There's just something about "spike."

The Secretary of Defense has told the Republican governors of Alaska, Oklahoma, Texas, Idaho, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Wyoming that National Guard members in their states are subject to the Department of Defense vaccine mandate. The proportion of Guard and Reserves personnel who have been vaccinated is much lower than the 97 percent of active-duty military personnel who have had at least one dose. 

Denmark is lifting most of its remaining restrictions even as cases continue to rise. Covid is no longer considered a "socially critical disease" requiring special attention, thanks in large part to the high vaccination rate. There will no longer be mask mandates, and nightclubs are reopening. Businesses and venues will decide if they will require proof of vaccination from those who enter. Unvaccinated travelers from outside the visa-free Schengen travel area will still face some restrictions. 

Long covid sounds bad enough for adults, but children suffering from it seems particularly unfair. A Danish study found that less than one percent of children reported symptoms lasting over four weeks. On the other hand, an Italian study of 129 children found that 43 percent reported at least one symptom 60 days after they were first infected. Symptoms include headaches, stomach aches, dizziness, fatigue, brain fog, and mood changes. In some cases, symptoms persist for months after the initial infection.

February 2020 was when I first heard of some strange virus in China, but it was later in the month. At that point, it was all nebulous, as things happening in another country, especially one on the other side of the world, often are. As March entered, with news of that strange virus arriving on this side of the world, things got real. I'm approaching 700 days of these daily recaps with two full years coming not too long after. While I don't think we will ever return to what was "normal" then, there are signs of a new normal taking shape. Still, things could still pull a u-turn and hold us back. The thing about being a pessimist is that I'm not disappointed as often or as much as an optimist might be.