The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 454 (954)

I know better than to try to post anything today other than the pandemic is not over. I'm giving an elderly friend a ride to the doctor this morning, after which I hope to have time to come home and take The Family Dog out for some midday business before heading to work early voting in the afternoon. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 453 (953)

Feel different almost three years into the pandemic? Rather stay home than go out? Feeling stuck in a rut? The pandemic has induced some personality traits in some of us, particularly those under the age of 30. In general, we are now less extroverted, creative, agreeable, and conscientious. The sharpest drops in conscientiousness and agreeableness were in people under 30. The changes are supposedly equal to about one decade of normative change. Don't worry too much; these changes could be temporary.

If you're still feeling nervous about the research at Boston University that combined virus bits from different variants, more news has come out. It seems that the manipulated strain was really less lethal than the original. The strain of mice used in the research is very sensitive to covid and widely used in covid research. The original viral strain killed 100 percent of the mice who received it, meaning that the 80 percent for the combined strain was an improvement. 

 While the government has reprimanded Boston University, it has ignored similar research at other labs including some at NIH. The oversight policy for such research is known as Potential Pandemic Pathogen Care and Oversight or P3CO. According to a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, "...the P3CO framework needs to be overhauled pretty dramatically. The whole process is kind of a black box that makes it really difficult for researchers." A committee of government advisors is expected to deliver updated recommendations around the end of this year. That board is also looking at risk from computer software that can figure out how to change pathogens and not in a good way. This all sounds hunky-dory except that research not funded by the government does not have to follow federal guidelines. One suggestion is that the policy be modeled on the Federal Select Agent Program. Under that program, anyone working with certain substances such as anthrax must register with the federal government no matter who is funding the research. 

After that bit of laboratory research news, another laboratory study has shown that influenza and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) can fuse to form a hybrid virus that can evade the immune system, infect lung cells, and result in viral pneumonia. The supervisor of the research reports, "This kind of hybrid virus has never been described before. We are talking about viruses from two completely different families combining together with the genomes and the external proteins of both viruses. It is a new type of virus pathogen." Influenza usually infects cells in the nose, throat, and windpipe while RSV prefers windpipe and lung cells. The RSV tends to go lower in the lung than influenza, and the lower it goes, the more serious the resulting infection. The research supervisor notes that "influenza is using hybrid viral particles as a Trojan horse." He went on to say that the research could be extended to other viruses as well as whether it can happen with animal viruses. I wonder what level of biosafety this research will merit.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 452 (952)

I have no idea why yesterday's post turned three paragraphs into three way-too-long lines. It appears that my efforts to fix it worked, though I will now have two posts with the same publication date.

Less than 10 percent of people over the age of 65 have gotten the bivalent booster. That's even worse than our other vaccination stats. While 79 percent of the population has gotten at least one basic dose of vaccine, less than 40 percent has gotten any booster(s). We rank 73rd in the world for boosters per 100 residents. While those people who opted out of the basic vaccination are not going to be signing up for boosters, it should be possible to persuade those who have had the basic vaccinations to get at least some of the boosters. 

So far, covid is showing no signs of being seasonal as influenza is, meaning that an annual booster may not be an option. In fact, the leader of the FDA's vaccines operations worries that at the rate covid mutates, we may need yet another booster in the next year. He notes, "I'm not saying that's what's going to happen, but it's what keeps me up at night, because we see how fast this virus is evolving." 

And on a general note, Pfizer may charge between $100 and $130 for a vaccine dose once the government stops buying the doses being given now. The gods help those people with no health insurance. 

We continue to float atop, dangling our feet into a "variant soup." The BQ.1.1 and XBB variants are the most immune evasive variants yet followed closely by BA.1.75.2. These variants are resistant to the only monoclonal antibody left that worked well against the preceding variants. They are also resistant to Evusheld, used for prevention by immunocompromised people. In other words, we may be getting ready to slip off our raft to start dog paddling as fast as we can.

National Assessment of Educational Progress results have been released, the first results since before the pandemic began. Math scores for eighth graders fell in nearly every state. Only 26 percent of eighth graders are proficient, compared with 34 percent in 2019. Math scores for fourth graders fell in 41 states. While 41 percent of fourth graders were proficient in math in 2019, only 36 percent are now. Reading scores declined in over half the states, with no state showing a sizable improvement. Only one in three fourth graders were proficient in reading. The Secretary of Education summarized the results: "I want to be very clear: The results in today's nation's report card are appalling and unacceptable. This is a moment of truth for education. How we respond to this will determine not only our recovery, but our nation's standing in the world." I'm actually not sure what our standing is now, so that last part may or may not be true. Scores for students in the state in which I live, Virginia, were roughly the same as the national averages.

As people start to declare the pandemic over, the time is running out to lay any groundwork to prepare for future pandemics. There are three vital areas to consider: (1) disease surveillance, (2) strengthening the global healthcare workforce, and (3) ensuring equitable access to treatments and vaccines. The White House's pandemic preparedness plan warns that "future pandemics could be far worse." In the wide area of pandemics, it is worth keeping in mind that "you can't see what you're not looking for." I am afraid that if the Republican party gains control of both houses of Congress, the government will stop looking while the next pandemic creeps up on us.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 451 (951)

The CDC director, Rochelle Walensky, has tested positive for covid. I’m waiting to see if she abides by the CDC guidance to consider yourself ready to rock and roll after only five days if symptoms are improving or gone and there’s no fever. I’m sure she’s been vaccinated, but I’ll go ahead and throw out the figure that there is a 96 percent reduction in death for two boosters versus unvaccinated.

“It’s going to be a rough winter” says one of the medical talking heads. Influenza cases are rising earlier than usual and are expected to soar in the coming weeks. The travel and crowds associated with winter holidays are certainly not going to help; flu cases are predicted to soar in the coming weeks. Besides covid and influenza, experts are also watching a surge in Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), which can be fatal in children and those over the age of 65. An infectious disease expert in Seattle notes, "We're seeing everything come back with a vengeance." This means that, according to an evolutionary microbiologist at Penn State, "We're in uncharted territory." Masks and social distancing sent influenza waning in the last two years. Sadly, those no longer fit into the equation. The twindemic some experts have warned of could become a tridemic. On a related note, there is a new proprietary genetic test that can identify SARS-CoV-2, influenza, and RSV A and B varieties in one PCR test. Someone may be laughing all the way to the bank on that one.

I have no idea how many children have been given flu shots, but fewer than one in three children ages five through 11 has finished even the basic series of covid shots. Yep, it's going to be a rough winter.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 450 (950)

Here I am with a fairly stable Internet signal, and no real news to report. Our governor has promised parents that the CDC's covid vaccination "mandate" will not be applied in Virginia. He of course neglected to say that it is a recommendation and not a mandate. One of the principles he campaigned on was parents making educational decisions, so letting his supporters know that they did not have to follow the CDC recommendation fit right in.

The usual variants are still out there, Ukraine is still at war, and the head of lettuce lasted longer than the British Prime Minister.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 449 (949)

This will be quick. The Internet is going in and out, and I'm not going to try to post from my iPhone. There are multiple variants out there in a multitude of places. Experts say multipole varinats operating at the same time may be a new phase of the virus. So far, there is no indication that the variants can bypass boosters or Paxlovid.

A CDC advisory panel unanimously endorsed adding covid shots to the routine vaccination schedule for both children and adults. This does not mean that vaccination will be required for school attendance. Flu shots are on the recommended list but are not generally required by schools. Some pundits note that this is a sure sign that covid "is here to stay."

And now to try to get one of the Internet-on moments.... 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 448 (948)

If you were scared after reading yesterday's report of the research done at Boston University, said research is under investigation. You can read about that here. One thing the article just linked mentioned that concerned me is that the research was only done at biosafety level three, one level down from the most secure level. A molecular biologist at MIT explained, "This highlights the lack of oversight for research of this kind. If there is even a small chance that you might get something surprising from these experiments you would want to have been doing them offshore and at biosafety level four, not a 10-minute drive from downtown Boston."

Since I let today get away from me, forgetting that I had told The Professor that I would make bread, I'm sticking with a few quick notes today. The FDA has given the Novavax vaccine emergency use authorization as a booster given six months after the initial series. Covid cases in Beijing have quadrupled in several weeks. The numbers are small but still concerning. Ten days ago there were 49 new cases; now, 197 new cases. Some neighborhoods have been locked down with residents required to be tested frequently. Shanghai clearly thinks the pandemic is not over; the city is planning to build a 3,250-bed quarantine center on a small island near the downtown area. 

The XBB Omicron subvariant has caused the number of cases in some Asian countries to double in one day. The BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 subvariants now account for 11 percent of US cases, up from three percent two weeks ago. Other subvariants are surging in Singapore, including BA.4.6, BF.7, and the aforementioned XBB. Some of these may be getting around the natural immunity from past infections, even Omicron infections. Fortunately, there is no evidence the new subvariants cause more severe disease, and Paxlovid does work on them. 

The wi-fi has been going in and out here, so here's hoping I can get this post published.