The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 129 (629)

It's not clear why, but no deaths have yet been connected to the Omicron variant. Perhaps it hasn't been long enough for the first few cases to progress. Preliminary results from South Africa suggest Omicron is three times more likely to cause reinfections compared to Delta and Beta. Omicron continues to spread in South Africa. The percentage of tests coming back positive for covid has increased to 22.4 percent from 16.5 percent. Both Australia and the US have confirmed locally transmitted cases, so who knows what may be coming here. Dr. Fauci says it will take two weeks while other experts say it will take longer to answer questions about Omicron's transmission, immune evasion, and severity. A positive note is that on the day after the first Omicron case was discovered in the US, there were more covid vaccinations than on any day since May. Over one million of the 2.2 million doses administered were boosters. This fits with the advice from the governor of New York to "...get vaccinated, get boosted, and get ready."

Omicron does seem to be more transmissible than Delta, and it is quite possible that future variants will continue to get more transmissible. The original coronavirus had an R0 of three. Alpha's R0 was four to five. Delta's is six to eight. Says a senior lecturer in mathematics at the University of Bath, "There's no reason to believe this won't go any higher. Measles, which is one of the most infectious human-to-human diseases, has an R0 which has been estimated to be as high as 18. There's certainly still room for the R0 of Covid to increase." It's not clear if there is a limit to how infectious something can be. 

The FDA has authorized Eli Lilly's monoclonal antibodies treatments for infants and children under the age of 12 who are at high risk of becoming seriously ill because of an underlying condition such as diabetes. It should be noted that this would not take the place of vaccination for children old enough to be vaccinated. It would be a treatment for children once they have covid. 

The question has been raised of why vaccines couldn't be tailored to a variant. A follow-up question is what to do when a new variant evolves. And if variants are geographically distributed, who will make the decisions of which vaccine(s) to deploy where?

A Labour Member of Parliament has reported Prime Minister Boris Johnson to police for hosting at least two parties during restrictions last year, saying, "I believe they broke the law. Most of my constituents followed the rules; those that didn't faced penalties.Johnson is not above the law, despite his bloated self-entitlement." 

Is Omicron as bad as some say it could be, more transmissible, harder to protect against, and more severe? What if it's two of those three? Is more transmissible covid that can bypass the immunity offered by reinfection or vaccination something we can live with if its symptoms remain mild and few people die? What if few people die but those who do contract Omicron have more long covid symptoms? Is there any combination of possibilities that we could live with? Stay tuned. It might be 2022 before we know enough to answer those questions.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 128 (628)

Let's see if I can get this written and remember to publish it on the same day. It seems as if there have been so many little things to deal with lately that some are bound to fall through the cracks. Publishing a blog post is a relatively minor little thing so if something had to go yesterday, the blog post was a good one. I wrote the one I posted this morning yesterday; I just got distracted and never hit the "publish" button.

It's getting nigh near impossible to keep a running count of the nations and US states in which Omicron has been identified. In some cases, there is a travel history to "blame." In others, community transmission is the only way someone could have contracted it. It's looking more and more as if Omicron laps Delta in the foot race of transmissibility, though solid proof is still lacking. In mid-November, South Africa was seeing about 260 new cases per day. On Tuesday, there were over 4,300 new cases; on Wednesday, over 8,600. Thursday, there were over 11,500 new cases. Over 75 percent of the new cases in South Africa are from Omicron, not Delta. 

Over 120 people attended a Christmas party in Oslo on November 26; over 60 of those people have tested positive for covid. Omicron has been identified in 14 or 15 of those cases so far. One person at the party returned from a trip to the company's South African office before Omicron was announced. The date of the party was the day on which Omicron was labeled a variant of concern. This superspreader has led to additional restrictions in and around Oslo. Masks are now required where distance cannot be maintained, such as on public transport and in shops. People have been urged to work from home if possible. Crowds of more than 100 people are banned with the exception of theaters and other places with fixed seating; the limit there is 600. Only table service can be used to serve alcoholic drinks. Finally, restaurants and events need to register attendees. I'm thinking this last one is to help with contact tracing. 

Can you imagine such measures coming back in the US? While POTUS's press secretary says that nothing is off the table, the course of action put forward by POTUS includes only a nationwide campaign for booster shots, expanded availability and use of at-home tests, and tighter restrictions on international travel. POTUS notes that, "In order to beat Covid, we have to shut it down worldwide." I'm not seeing that the measures proposed for the US will be as effective as some of the courses of action taken in other countries. Experts say that travel bans won't accomplish anything unless they are done in conjunction with expanded vaccinations, mask-wearing, and distancing. 

Did you know that there is a profession or at least a job of international travel risk analysis? One such person at the University of Denver says people thinking about international travel need to consider whether the travel can be postponed and how flexible they think they can be. They need to think through all scenarios that could happen and think about whether they could or would want to handle what arises in each. A physician who advises organizations on how to manage health risks advises taking along a supply of at-home rapid antigen tests.  

According to a study published in The Lancet, it probably doesn't matter which vaccine a person gets as a booster. The study looked at seven different vaccine brands as boosters. All gave strong immune responses with Pfizer and Moderna giving the highest. All the patients in the study had first doses of either AstraZeneca or Pfizer. 

Because it's Friday and the weekend awaits, here's some relevant info about alcohol consumption. The French drink the most times per week--three--but the Australians are the champions when it comes to getting drunk. They average 27 times per year, almost double the world average of 15. Aussies drink an average of twice each week and become heavily drunk once every two weeks. The runners-up in terms of getting drunk are, in descending order, Danes and Finns, Americans, British, Canadian, Irish, French, Swedes, and the Dutch. The Professor was surprised to hear the Danes, Finns, and Swedes were in the top ten given how expensive alcohol is in those countries. Maybe the weather has something to do with it. It may take alcohol to get through those long, dark, cold winter nights and even days. Above the Arctic Circle, winter days greatly resemble winter nights, as we learned first-hand off the Norwegian coast for New Year's 2018-19.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 127 (627)

A second case of Omicron has been found in the US. This one is in Minnesota, in a man who just returned from an anime convention in New York City. New York City is contacting other people who were at the convention and urging them to get tested. The man's symptoms were mild, and he was at least partially vaccinated (I can't remember if he's gotten a booster).

Omicron has passed Delta to be the most prevalent variant in South Africa, making up 74 percent of all the genomes sequenced in November. It appears that Omicron was there as early as November 8. In the province in which Omicron was first found, the hospitalization rate jumped by 144 percent last week, doubling about every six days. The percent positivity has skyrocketed in South Africa. In mid-November, about one percent of tests were coming up positive. That rose to 10.2 percent then overnight jumped to 16.5 percent. Epidemiological evidence suggests that previous infection does not protect against Omicron. Omicron can bypass the immunity given by an earlier infection. There have yet to be any lockdowns or civic mitigation measures, though a representative of the Progressive Health Forum has advised that "Everyone you know is a potential risk to you." 

The EU's public health agency says that Omicron could cause more than half of all new infections in Europe within the next few months. There have been Omicron cases in France, but the current fourth wave there is all about Delta. Germany has gone so far as to ban unvaccinated people from non-essential shops and events unless they are recently recovered which, as noted above, may not mean anything once Omicron takes over. The European Commission president is calling for discussions about mandatory vaccinations. Those could get really interesting.

And here in the US, POTUS says that masks will continue to be required on transportation and in airports until mid-March at the earliest. His press secretary says that "nothing is off the table" and that includes requiring people to be vaccinated in order to fly domestically. POTUS is also stressing the need to get boosters. I'd like to know if there's any thought being given to getting the vaccine-hesitant off the fence to get their first shots. Why are those people not looking at the number of anti-vaccine people who have recently contracted covid and died. I know that several said publicly before they died that they wish they'd gotten vaccinated. The POTUS quote that I've seen repeated on multiple sources: "We are going to fight this variant with science and speed, not chaos and confusion." That's been seen as a jab at his presidential predecessor whether intentional or not. 

New York City has announced that it will require teachers in private and religious schools to be vaccinated. This would affect 56,000 teachers at about 930 schools. There may be come controversy about teachers at yeshivas, ultra-Orthodox Jewish private schools. There is resistance to the vaccines within the Orthodox Jewish community; ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods have some of the lowest vaccination rates in the city. 

And so time the time passes in which we are supposed to be able to learn more about Omicron's severity and ability to bypass vaccines. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 126 (626)

Another day that did not go as planned. My quilt must hate me by now. On the better side, a friend left a comment with the URL of a how-to-make-a-decent-binding website. I shall definitely read it again (I've read through it once so far) before I get back to the binding.

Omicron has been identified in the US, specifically in California. What does that mean? That it's likely present in multiple other states and spreading its range even as I type. Nigeria announced that they had found Omicron in a sample from October then later announced that they'd made a mistake. So there's still no precise date for when Omicron first reared its ugly, spiked head, in the world or here.

And now for some general, non-Omicron-specific coronavirus news. On the political front, four Republican states have started expanding unemployment benefits for employees who are fired or quit over vaccine mandates. In other words, they will pay people for not getting vaccinated. The states are, so far, Iowa, Tennessee, Florida, and Kansas. There are 30 other states with Republican-led legislatures that could do the same. Missouri is considering it. Also on the political front, a judge appointed by the previous president backed a ban on the federal vaccine mandate for healthcare workers. Personally, if you're not willing to get vaccinated when scientific evidence suggests you should, you should not be in healthcare. 

Experts warn that Germany could have 6,000 people in intensive care by Christmas. The previous ICU high was 5,745 on January 3. There are fewer ICU beds available now than then because of a nursing shortage. Also in Germany and not at all related to the pandemic, burglars broke through the wall of a toy store to steal dozens of Lego sets. They took the plastic bags containing the Lego pieces but left the boxes behind. There was no word on if the thieves also took the instructions.

According to an article published in Frontiers in Medicine, patients who survive severe covid are more than twice as likely to die over the following year than those not infected or who had a mild case. The increased risk of dying was greater for patients under the age of 65. Only 20 percent of those who died did so because of typical covid complications such as respiratory failure. A previous study showed that recovered patients had a significantly greater risk of being hospitalized in the six months following their infection. 

An FDA committee voted Tuesday to recommend that the government authorize use of the Merck antiviral molnupiravir. There was concern expressed over potential birth defects, especially delayed effects on males. How many senior citizens are having babies these days? I can see the birth defect possibility to be a reasonable concern for younger people at extra risk due to preexisting conditions, but it seems like a no-brainer to offer the drug to senior citizens. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 125 (625)

It's a good thing Omicron has put coronavirus news on some small sort of hold meaning that there weren't a lot of notes to take. Today's plan for the afternoon included taking some more notes, writing this post, and getting back to the binding on the latest quilt. The quilt has been shifted to tomorrow after having been, for the most part, shifted from yesterday to today. The machine part of the binding causes much angst from my fear of screwing the mitering on the corners up more than I know I'll do already. I just need to remember the words I put up on the refrigerator the other day: Whatever you're doing today, do it with the confidence of a 4-year-old wearing a Batman t-shirt. Wise words, I say.

Greece has made vaccines mandatory for people over the age of 60. Those who have not gotten their first shot by January 16 will be fined 100 Euros ($113.38 at today's rate) per month. This sounds like something that was in the works before Omicron reared its ugly head. If people won't respond to a bribe, try a threat. Germany's constitutional court has ruled that restrictions such as curfews, school closures, and contact restrictions in the interest of fighting the coronavirus are, in fact, legal.

Around 20 countries have so far reported finding the Omicron variant. France found it on Reunion, an island in the middle of nowhere in the middle of the Indian Ocean, but still French territory. The person testing positive there went through Mozambique on the way to Reunion. News briefs from other countries include the the fist case in Japan was a Namibian diplomat. There were Omicron cases in the Netherlands before South Africa first reported Omicron. It is not clear if the people with Omicron had visited South Africa. Masks are now required on public transport and in shops in England. People in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland must also wear masks in pubs and restaurants. Norway is requiring masks on transit and in crowded places. 

Altogether, Europe is currently reporting more cases each day than at any previous point in the pandemic. It's not clear what Omicron might do to that rate if it hasn't already done something. The president of the European Commission advises hoping for the best while preparing for the worst. That's probably good advice for anywhere or for anyone. Various reports have pointed out the initial anxiety over the lambda and mu variants about which we no longer hear. Omicron could also turn out to be a nothing burger, though I can't say I believe that. One of the pluses of being a pessimist is that there's no place to go but up. 

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 124 (624)

Omicron again rules the news, though much of it is repetition. It will be two to three weeks before we know anything "real" about its ability to get past the immune system or how severe cases might be in both unvaccinated and vaccinated people. The list of countries in which Omicron has been found grows steadily. The last I saw, there were 16 on the list (there are more, believe you me, that have not yet been identified): Britain, Germany, France, Denmark, Israel, Canada, Hong Kong, Australia, South Africa, Portugal, Italy, Botswana, Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, and Sweden. I expect that any day or perhaps any hour the US will find itself on that list. 

One troubling thing about that list is that in two places, Germany and Scotland, Omicron cases have been identified that have no connection to travel internationally or even nationally. Community transmission means anyone could be exposed at any time. Indeed, scientists in the UK are said to be expecting to find hundreds of Omicron cases in the UK, some from before Omicron's official announcement. 

The G7 health ministers held an emergency meeting today to discuss Omicron. The European Commission chief says that it will take two to three weeks "to get a full picture of the quality of the mutations" and "we know we are now in a race against time." Dr. Fauci would agree with both those statements. WHO regards Omicron as posing a very high global risk: "Omicron has an unprecedented number of spike mutations, some of which are concerning for their potential impact on the trajectory of the pandemic. The overall global risk related to the new variant ... is assessed as very high." WHO also spoke of the "severe consequences" possible due to Omicron. 

Meanwhile, POTUS says that Omicron is "a cause for concern, not a cause for panic." Indeed, panic would cause more problems than we already have. Still, even if Omicron is a "variant of concern," I'm not sure concern alone will get people motivated to put masks back on or seek out a vaccination or booster. I'm not sure what a better word might be. A cause for worry? A cause with consequences? A cause just because? 

Merriam-Webster has announced its word of the year. That word would be "vaccine." Vaccines do seem to be at the root of how people react to the pandemic. But will "vaccine" end up so tied to the coronavirus that it leaves measles, mumps, rubella, tetanus, chicken pox, whooping cough, and polio in the dust? When someone asks if a person is "vaccinated," they are not talking about any of the vaccines in that list; they are talking about one of the coronavirus vaccines. 

I saw two phrases today that have me thinking philosophically: " As we prepare to enter the third year of the pandemic ..." and "... in the years since the virus first emerged ..." I know I'm not the only person to have trouble remembering what day of the week it is, but is anyone else having trouble remembering what season it is? The time between late spring 2020 and late summer 2021 is blurred. I have to brush the dust off my glasses or the frost off my windshield to identify anything specific from that period. Even after I started to venture out for essentials after hitting (the first) full vaccination mark, the time seems fuzzy. Is this how people with amnesia feel? I'm not saying that this bothers me, but it does intrigue me. Or maybe it's just all the psychology classes I took in what seems like a past life.

The Road goes eve on and on ... Day 123 (623)

It may be Sunday, but the news streams have continued to develop from what I read early this morning. I could probably take as many notes now as I did this morning if I were willing to use the time I'll spend writing this on that note-taking. Particularly frightening were comments from Dr. Fauci and NIH director Collins on the morning news shows. You can find the whole article here. Particularly scary were Dr. Fauci's comments on the potential of the US going into a fifth wave, based on the current rising case numbers and stagnating vaccination rates. My fear is best illustrated in his comment, "How bad it gets is dependent upon us and how we mitigate." Returning to a comment made more than several times in the early days of this blog, we're fucked. 

The experts say that it will take two to three weeks to know for sure just how transmissible Omicron is and just how well it works against vaccine-induced immunity. Given how quickly the percentage of South African cases caused by Omicron has passed those cause by Delta, the transmissibility question seems answered to me. I've got a bad feeling about the immunity one, too.

The doctor who discovered Omicron says that the world is "panicking unnecessarily" and the symptoms are "extremely mild." They did later concede that the cases they had found were in younger adults in their 20s or 30s, some of whom presented with just fatigue and a mild headache. Moderna's chief medical officer says the answers will come based on how Omicron affects the elderly or people with underlying conditions. The UK health minister says that people should continue "as normal" with their plans for Christmas, though at the same time says that vaccines may be less effective against Omicron. "There is reason to think that maybe, and I stress the word may, that this variant may turn out to make our vaccines less effective, it may not. We just don't know enough. We will learn to live with this." Live with this?!?! Is the alternative to die with it?

There is more coronavirus news, but all of it is Omicron. The list of countries in which Omicron has been found will be longer tomorrow morning as will the list of specific travel or entry bans or requirements. Just know that more countries have identified it as present this afternoon than did this morning and that there are countries blocking anyone from coming in or their own citizens from leaving to visit Africa. At least they're taking the risk seriously.

WHO announced officially why nu and xi were skipped when naming Omicron. "Nu" was seen as being mistaken for "new." "Xi" is a surname for many Chinese including the current leader. WHO policy requires "avoiding causing offense to any cultural, social, national, regional, professional, or ethnic groups" when assigning names. 

And now for something totally different. Canada has responded to a maple syrup shortage by releasing 22,000 tonnes from its maple syrup reserve. The Federation of Quebec Maple Syrup Producers is the OPEC of syrup; they cite a short and warm growing season in 2021 and a 36 percent increase in demand as responsible for the shortage addressed by the release. Syrup harvesting is highly dependent on weather, requiring daytime temperatures over freezing and nighttime temperatures under freezing. Some seven million extra trees will need to be tapped in 2022 to make up for the shortage.

Word of the day: armamentarium. According to dictionary.com, its definition is

the aggregate of equipment, methods, and techniques available to one for carrying out one's duties:The stethoscope is still an essential part of the physician's armamentarium.

a fruitful source of devices or materials available or used for an undertaking:The new arts center is an armamentarium for creative activity.