The View from the Hermitage, Day 488

The CDC director advises that we are approaching "a pandemic of the unvaccinated ... If you are not vaccinated, you are at risk." In the last week, 10 percent of counties moved into a "high-transmission risk" zone; another seven percent became at "substantial risk." The CDC director again: increasing risk "is giving us all a reason to double down and get more people vaccinated." That is so easy to say but not so easy to do. I admit to being surprised at the size of the vaccine hesitancy or resistance. If herd immunity really exists, we aren't going to get there. I'm back to being square in the "we're fucked" camp.

WHO has warned that the surges in many parts of the world increase the likelihood of new, potentially dangerous variants. The chair of the WHO Emergency Covid-19 Committee notes, "The pandemic is nowhere near finished." Indeed, Africa's death toll this week was up 40 percent over last week. Namibia and Tunisia now report more deaths per capita than any other country. Hospitals are nearly full and with dwindling oxygen supplies and a lack of medical workers. The US has said it will send 25 million Johnson & Johnson doses in coming weeks but that is so very far from enough. There is a strong possibility, too, that supplies will still be short a year from now. A commissioner with Africa Covid-19 Response says, "The blame squarely lies with the rich countries. A vaccine delayed is a vaccine denied."

England's mask mandate will end as of Monday, and it is not clear what reactions there will be. The prime minister says, "The pandemic is not over. We cannot just simply revert instantly from Monday the 19th of July to life as it was before covid." The government "expects and recommends" that masks be worn by workers and customers in crowded, enclosed spaces such as shops. London's mayor says that masks are still required on the public transit system there, and the National Health Service will still require masks in hospitals. Scotland and Wales set their own requirements health-wise, and masks will still be required there. 

Believe it or not, the Olympics are still on! The president of the International Olympic Committee insists there is no risk of the Games spreading infections, saying organizers will do all they can to ensure no risk for the Japanese people. There are currently 30 confirmed cases among Olympics-related personnel. Tokyo's case count is climbing. There were 1,271 new cases Friday, continuing the largest surge in six months. The average number of daily cases has risen 63 percent in the past two weeks. Only 20 percent of the population of 126 million have been fully vaccinated. One of the leading Japanese newspapers says that the covid bubble "has already burst" and that organizers' plans to separate Olympics-related people from the general population "are failing miserably." A former chairman of Japan's bar association submitted a petition with 450,000 signatures arguing that the Games should not be held. "We won't be able to save lives if the infection spreads further and the medical system collapses. Now is the time to cancel the Games with courage."

A couple of covid quickies: The University of California will now require all students and staff to be vaccinated for the fall semester. They previously said that vaccinations would be required only when the FDA had given the vaccines full authorization rather than emergency. I guess the swiftly rising case rates persuaded them otherwise. Canada may admit travelers from all countries by early September  and might admit vaccinated Americans to enter as early as mid-August.

The use of cash is falling, and most of the use that remains may be of the under-the-table variety. It seems that $100 bills (currently the largest denomination that exists) account for over 80 percent of the US bills in circulation and are rarely used in legitimate transactions.