The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 7 (507)

Murder hornets, locusts, acid-spitting whip scorpions. What more could we ask for? How about bubonic-plague-toting chipmunks? Yep, they've caused the closure of some of the most popular hiking trails around Lake Tahoe. Evidently, plague in rodents at high elevations is not that rare. If it's caught in time, plague in humans is very treatable. There was a great comment about this on a Facebook page: "Drought, plague fires, and earthquakes. Just another week in California." It will only take a matter of days to clear the area of plague and reopen the trails for hiking.

The Greek synchronized swimming team had to withdraw from the Olympics after four members tested positive. At least 327 people connected to the Olympics have now tested positive, 31 of them athletes. Counts are based on the time period since July 1. The Olympics have been testing people daily, even fully vaccinated ones. Elsewhere in Japan, cases are still surging. New cases have averaged almost 10,000 daily over the past week. To alleviate the strain on hospitals, only the most seriously ill covid patients will be admitted. 

China is experiencing its worst outbreak in months. It now has 144 medium- and high-risk areas, the most since the initial outbreak in early 2020. They are introducing mass travel restrictions. All inter-city coach, taxi, and online car-hailing services have been suspended in medium- and high-risk areas.

Deaths in Africa have risen 80 percent in one month. The WHO director has called for a moratorium on vaccine boosters at least until the end of September. He would like to see 10 percent of the population of every country vaccinated as soon as possible, something made much harder with booster shots diverting vaccine to first world countries.

The FDA is accelerating the timetable to fully approve the Pfizer vaccine by September. They're doing an "all-hands-on-deck approach" hoping that full approval will increase public confidence. Several universities and hospitals, the Defense Department, and the city of San Francisco are expected to issue vaccine mandates once any vaccine is fully approved. Three of every 10 unvaccinated people say they'd be more likely to take a fully approved vaccine. 

Covid cases in children and teens have gone up 8o percent in one month. Most kids with covid recover within a week, but a small percentage experience long-term symptoms. For 4.4 percent of kids with covid, symptoms will last four weeks or longer; 1.8 percent of kids will have symptoms for eight weeks or longer. For adults, 13.3 percent will have symptoms for four weeks, and 4.5 percent will have them for eight weeks. 

In the US, the two demographic groups lease likely to have been vaccinated are White Evangelical Christians and uninsured people under the age of 65. About 14 percent (that's one in seven) of adults say that they will definitely not get vaccinated, a figure largely unchanged since December. Members of ethnic minority groups who had not been vaccinated are more likely to be in a "wait and see" group than the "definitely will not get the vaccine" group.

The large party scheduled to celebrate Barrack Obama's 60th birthday has been cancelled due to concern that it could become a superspreader event.  I expect that Michele and the kids will give him a good, intimate, family celebration. I remember turning 60, though I don't remember anything about a special celebration. Memory cells may start to deteriorate faster between the ages of 60 and 65.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 6 (506)

Should we thank the Delta variant that the fully vaccinated rate for the US is now at 50 percent, and the partial rate is at the 70 percent that might have been close to herd immunity had the novel coronavirus not mutated into something even more novel? And how should we greet Delta's cousin, the Delta Plus variant? Plus has now been found in South Korea, Britain, and the US along with another dozen countries. It appears to be more transmissible, better able to attack lung cells, and less responsive to antibodies. Oh joy! And we thought Delta itself was bad.

Japan has a new tactic with which to get people to follow covid rules--public shaming. Monday saw the release of the names of three people who acted to avoid contact with authorities after returning from South Korea or Hawaii. All tested negative at the airport but failed to follow up or respond to requests for their locations or other information. The government said in May that about 100 people daily were flouting covid border control rules. It said then that it would soon start disclosing names, which it now is starting to do. Of course, this would not get off the ground at all in the US thanks to our right to privacy not to mention HIPAA protection. 

So far there have only been about 300 covid infections inside the Olympics, but some Japanese say that seeing the Olympics being held has encouraged them to relax about the virus. The demand for medical services remains high. Tokyo currently has 3,231 covid patients in hospitals, 114 of them in serious condition. There are 8,270 people on waiting lists to be admitted to hospitals.

Wuhan, China has discovered its first case of local transmission since last spring, and will test all 11 million residents in response. Testing that number of residents took only two weeks last spring, which somewhat amazes me. Bangladesh continues its nationwide lockdown. Dhaka's three main hospitals have no ICU beds available and are running out of medical oxygen. The country recorded over 5,600 deaths in July; those 5,600 account for a fourth of all deaths since the pandemic started. The government has issued an exemption to keep ready-made garment industry factories open and working. 

The CDC has added 16 destinations to its "very high" covid travel risk list. If you would like to visit Andorra, Curacao, Greece, Guadaloupe, Iran, Ireland, the Isle of Man, Kazakhstan, Lesotho, Libya, Malta, Martinique, Saint Barthelemy, Saint Martin, or the US Virgin Islands in the near future, you perhaps should think twice. 

According to one epidemiologist, Florida is still one month away from the peak of new cases.Worst-case scenarios show the state's hospital bed capacity exceeded in September. It takes roughly five weeks to get from a first injection to full immunity. Schools and universities will re-open in less than five weeks. Experts say that the only way to have an impact on the expected Labor Day wave is to have extra protective measures. Governor DeSantis has other ideas, saying, "In Florida, there will be no lockdowns. There will be no school closures. There will be no restrictions and no mandates." 

Pandemic pessimism is back, though I never knew it had gone anywhere. Only 45 percent of people polled say that the coronavirus situation is getting better. This is the first time all year that Americans' pessimism outweighs its optimism. In June, 17 percent of the public expected disruption to travel, school, work, and public events to continue into 2022. Now, 42 percent do. In general, the survey found "little evidence that people are altering their behavior from earlier this summer to avoid the virus." The virus is clearly more dangerous to unvaccinated people than it is to vaccinated ones. So why do one third of vaccinated Americans say they are at least somewhat worried, compared with one fifth of those who are not vaccinated.

Finally, bring on those employer vaccine mandates! When asked if they would get vaccinated if their employer mandated it, one in three unvaccinated Americans said that they would.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 5 (505)

Home is the sailor, home from the sea, and the hunter home from the hill...and The Professor and I are home from a nice week away. I did manage to mess up my right lower back on the second day there (it still hurts) and tried but failed to break a little toe this morning (it's going to be fine), but other than that the trip was quite uneventful. The Professor did have to explore the cabin's crawl space when the water stopped unexpectedly, but the only casualty was his sweatpants succumbing to the dirt.

Germany will start giving covid booster shots to older people and people with underlying conditions starting in September. This was announced after a top EU official criticized the EU as falling far short of the doses it had promised to Africa and Latin America. He warned that China is filling the vacuum created by the EU's failure and this will have "geopolitical consequences." Israel started vaccine boosters for people over 60 last week. The senior vaccines policy advisor for Doctors Without Borders warns, "Wealthy countries shouldn't be prioritizing giving third doses when much of the developing world hasn't even yet had the chance to get their first covid-19 shots."

While vaccines have made it to some African countries, not all of those vaccines have been administered. In June, 100,000 doses of Pfizer arrived in Chad. Over the next five weeks, only 6,000 of those were given. Benin managed to give 267 shots per day before their 110,000 doses of AstraZeneca expired. 

Here in the US, covid cases have increased by 149 percent in the last 14 days. Deaths have increased by 14 percent over the same time period. The governor of New York has mandated that Metropolitan Transportation Authority workers must get vaccinated or face weekly testing. The order also applies to the Port Authority, which runs LaGuardia, Kennedy, and Newark airports; bridges; tunnels; and seaports, and is effective as of Labor Day.

Companies are shifting plans in light of the changing covid landscape. Companies that are delaying their return to the office include Lyft, Google, Apple, Uber, Twitter, The New York Times, and Endeavor, the parent company of the William Morris Endeavor talent agency. Companies that have instituted vaccine requirements include luxury fitness company Equinox, Walmart (corporate level only), The Washington Post, Netflix, and Facebook. Companies adding mask requirements include Walmart in areas with substantial to high transmission rates, Publix, and Apple. Publix, a Florida-based grocery chain, will require all employees regardless of vaccination status to wear masks. Apple will determine which stores are affected by the case rate in their area; they anticipate this will affect more than half their stores. All employees will wear masks, regardless of vaccination status.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 4 (504)

One news feed I checked this morning extolled the fact that 21 years ago today, the first website went live on the World Wide Web or W3 as some called it then. The article noted that it’s still up today if you want to take a look at it at info.cern.ch. After some thought, 21 years seemed to be too short a time. The kids were 12 and 10 21 years ago, and I knew they’d used it for school before then. Wikipedia was the easiest place to look for verification, and 21 years really is too short a time. The ability to browse the Web was made available to the general public in August 1991, or 30 years ago. According to Wikipedia, everyday use started in 1993-94. One can’t trust everything seen on the Web; fact-checking is good if something seems wonky.

Summing up the Delta variant, people infected by it may carry 1,000 times more virus and for a longer period of time than did the people infected by the original virus. Delta may also be able to partially evade antibodies generated after infection or vaccination. Since this word got out and got listened to, demand for vaccinations has increased in less-vaccinated states. The seven-day average of first vaccine doses more than tripled in Mississippi between July 1 and July 27. It almost quadrupled in Louisiana between July 1 and July 28. It almost doubled in Missouri in just one month. At least some people out there are heeding the advice that’s been out there all along.

On Tuesday, there were over 100,000 confirmed new cases nationally for the first time since February, and Louisiana now has case rates 10 times higher than in June. At least 233 staff members at two San Francisco hospitals have tested positive for covid, most—75 to 80 percent--from breakthrough cases of the Delta variant. Only two cases have required hospitalization. The asymptomatic cases were discovered through contact tracing.

And in Texas, the governor has prohibited local governments and state agencies from mandating vaccines, adding emphasis to the already-in-place ban on mask mandates. He says that protection should be a matter of personal responsibility. Let me get this straight. I can take my responsibility personally and get vaccinated and wear a mask anywhere other than my own home and then go to work at my state or local government job and be surrounded by un-masked, un-vaccinated idiots who will be doing their best to infect me with whatever they might be carrying asymptomatically. I wonder if the governor of Texas has noticed the 209 percent rise in covid cases there over 14 days.

Further north, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally starts on Friday in South Dakota. The annual rally draws hundreds of thousands of motorcyclists and last year became a superspreader leading to hundreds of new cases across several states. Concern is high that it may be a superspreader again, this time to states with low vaccination rates.

There have now been three weekends in a row of demonstrations against France’s vaccine pass even as cases there continue to surge. Some of the demonstrators claim to be more afraid of the vaccines than of the disease itself. Brisbane, Australia began three days of lockdown after six cases were discovered there. Non-essential businesses must close; residents cannot travel more than 10k from their home and may not admit visitors to their home. The lockdown may be extended since nine new cases were found on Sunday.

Finally, Axios cited today’s New York Times Quote of the Day: “We live in an era of unprecedented scientific breakthroughs and expertise. But we’re also stymied by the forces of misinformation that undermine the true knowledge that is out there.” Does this sound like Lord of the Rings to anyone else? The forces of misinformation undermining the true knowledge? Where is Gandalf when we need him?

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 3 (503)

The Sons and DiL= are coming to the cabin today, and I’d like to get a walk in before they arrive, so it’s short and not-so-sweet today. Despite yesterday’s comment about the latest covid news keeping me awake at night, I am happy to report that I slept well last night. Tonight? Who knows.

The covid quote of the day comes from the co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital: “As bad as things are right now in the South, they are about to get worse for lots of unvaccinated people.” Considering yesterday’s news from the CDC, “lots of unvaccinated people” may be the same as “many vaccinated people.” And maybe not. Virginia is sometimes considered to be in the South and other times not. Georgia, though, is definitely in the South, and the covid case rate there has more than tripled in the last two weeks.

On the good side, the seven-day average number of vaccinations is 418,000, the highest daily number since July 5. That contributes to the 49.5 percent of Americans of all ages who are fully vaccinated. Try as I might, I can never find the full vaccination rate over half. It’s got to be over half if we just correctly identify the “what” the half is of. Less good news is that 33 percent of eligible Americans ages 12 and up have yet to receive at least one dose of vaccine.

Finally, coming across the statement that aerosols containing covid-19 can travel as easily as smoke from a cigarette conjured up a couple of groaners. Second-hand smoke & second-hand covid followed by one The Professor came up with at the same time I did—contact high & contact low. The road really does go ever on and on and no, children, we aren’t there yet.

The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 2 (502)

International news first, and I’ll save the news that may be sending me back to the hermitage or at least keep me awake at night. Japan has broadened the areas under states of emergency and extended the existing states until the end of August. Five other areas have been put under less-stringent restrictions. While there are new cases daily connected to the Olympics, there is still no sign of Olympics-to-general-public transmission. The Delta variant is spreading in China. The Chinese strategy for earlier outbreaks was to impose strict lockdowns at outbreak sites, hold travelers to lengthy quarantines, and conduct city-wide testing. These strategies are not working with Delta. Two cases have now made it to Beijing, which has very strict prevention policies.

The worst per capita covid death rate in Southeast Asia is now Myanmar. Some people there claim that the military is “weaponizing” covid. Medical oxygen is going to military hospitals and hospitals with government supporters. The same hold with PPE and masks. The military is said to be  letting covid run out of control. Doctors who opposed the coup fear that they will be arrested if they show up to work at public hospitals. Some do run makeshift hospitals knowing they will be arrested if caught. The UN human rights group says there have been 260 attacks on medical personnel resulting in 18 deaths. The military has detained 67 health care workers and is looking for 600 more. There are no real figures on vaccination. Vaccination was only in its first week when the coup took place. Maybe three percent of people got two doses. China is sending more vaccine, but it’s not clear who will get it first.

Remember my mantra early in the pandemic? “We’re fucked”? Today’s news makes me feel that even more than I did before. Let’s start with some quotes from the CDC director:

 

I think people need to understand that we’re not crying wolf here. This is serious … It’s one of the most transmissible viruses we know about. Measles, chickenpox, this—they’re all up there.

 

The measures we need to get this under control—they’re extreme. The measures you need are extreme.

 

The number of cases we have now is higher than any number we had on any given day last summer.

 

Internal CDC data scheduled to be released today show that fully vaccinated people may spread the Delta variant at the same rate as unvaccinated people do. Given that so many breakthrough infections are asymptomatic, there may well be more Delta being spread than previously thought. Covid’s R0, the number of other people an infected person will infect, is 8 or 9. R0 was 2 for the un-mutated coronavirus. For reference, here are the R0s for some other viruses:

 

Smallpox R0 = 3

Polio R0=4-6

Mumps R0=10-12

Chickenpox R0=10-12

Pertussis (whooping cough) R0=15-17

Measles R0=16-18

 

So the good news is that covid’s R0 is not as high as those for pertussis or measles. The bad news is that covid is more contagious than two viruses the world was all too happy to see be eradicated, smallpox and polio (admittedly, there are still cases of polio here and there around the world).

On June 22, there were 11,299 new cases of covod on average every day. This was the low point for 2021. The average number of new cases over the past seven days was 66,900. The CDC has noted the importance of updating all communications that describe breakthrough cases as “rare” or a “small percentage” of all cases to reflect that vaccinated or not, the amount of covid you transfer to others is the same. While that will clarify things, I don’t expect the people who need to pay attention to it will.

And the governor of the great state of Iowa says that mask guidance isn’t “grounded in reality or common sense.” I don’t know what reality she is grounded in, but it’s not the same as mine.

Today’s news from the CDC makes me feel much as I did at the outset of all this--vulnerable. I may have been vaccinated, but I could still get infected but with only no or mild symptoms. I may have been vaccinated and feel fine, but that doesn’t mean I’m not contagious. I’m three times as contagious as someone with smallpox was, and thanks to a vaccine, that disease has been eradicated. So why the hell don’t people want to get rid of covid?