tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32404814816865733442024-03-12T23:52:46.883-04:00Runs with Scissors ... and a SwordRandom musings from the second half century...Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.comBlogger1219125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-70503182170887404922023-06-29T09:44:00.004-04:002023-06-29T09:44:28.867-04:00Halfway to 2024 Already<p>I should wait until Saturday to post this because then I could comment on its being six months between posts. Normally, I use my birthday post to report on how I'm doing with the resolutions I made six months ago. That's easy this year since I never made any. The Christmas cards never got mailed either. It's been a rough seven months. I'll still post whatever horoscope has a special forecast for people born on July 1.</p><p>Long COVID continues. My condition has improved somewhat from six months ago if only napping once daily rather than twice is a sign of improvement. While it is nice to be able to do something--anything--in the mornings, I have on more than one occasion done enough that I feel it the next day. Today is one of those days. I am trying to get the binding done on what is now a quilt I should have given to the intended recipient 26 years ago. Without the long COVID, it would have been finished and presented in January. Now, I hope to present it in July if I don't overdo it as I did yesterday.</p><p>Apart from the last six months, the last two have been compounded by the death of my mother in early May. I thank the deities that I saw her the day before she passed and that it was one of our better get-togethers. As I walked out the door, we were both laughing. Last year, my brother came to visit for Mother's Day; this year, that would have been too late. He went home two weeks before Mom died. I wonder if that helped her release herself from her body in this life. I remain convinced that she knew she was going to pass. At our last meeting, she asked me what I might want of the various things she had hanging on the walls. She said that one thing, something I did not want, really appealed to one of the aides, and she wanted that aide to have it. The aides told me that the day before she passed she'd been in a particularly jovial mood; the next day, they said, she had left that mood behind and asked to be helped into bed at lunchtime. On every other day, she only got into bed when it was time to sleep. I made sure that each got what she wanted.</p><p>Mom did not want a memorial service or funeral, nor did she want an obituary. I honored her wishes on the former, but did write <a href="https://www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/charlottesville-va/ardyce-s-lightner-11279825" target="_blank">a short obituary.</a> I also let faraway friends know of her death. Many days in the past two months, the activity du jour has been dealing with some aspect of her estate. Her estate was larger than anticipated, and I need to go through the probate process. Advice to anyone thinking of their demise: Make your bank accounts "payable upon death" to your beneficiary(ies). If Mom had done that, there would have been no need for probate.</p><p>Because Mom's estate was larger than anticipated, we have been able to make some gifts to the kids. I'm also going to upgrade my plus-25-years-old sewing machine. Then I think I'll let things sit for a while while I regroup and try to recover as much as I might be able to. I just started reading <i>The Long COVID Survival Guide: How to Take Care of Yourself and What Comes Next--Stories and Advice from Twenty Long-Haulers and Experts</i>. I don't know that it will make anything better, but it will help remind me that I am not alone in this and that in comparison to many, many other people, my case is a mild one. Even so, writing this after doing some work on the quilt guild's website has left me somewhat drained and thinking of a morning nap.</p><p><br /></p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-54122078325892538802022-12-31T15:18:00.002-05:002022-12-31T15:18:47.362-05:00The Road into 2023Fortunately, I stopped the daily pandemic blog when I did. Remember the couple of times I said I was afraid of long COVID were I to get COVID? That apparently happened. Fatigue just kept growing. The first thing I noticed was that going up stairs was noticeably harder. I then realized that I was only making it through each day by ingesting over a gram of caffeine between coffee and caffeinated gum. Besides telling me to cut down on caffeine, my doctor ordered several types of blood work. When all the various tests came back normal, the diagnosis by exclusion pointed to long COVID. Doctor's orders were to stop doing all the things I'd been doing even if they had seemed fairly easy. This may be the year of no Christmas cards. This may also be the year of no resolutions, at least for now. I don't think "get my energy back" counts as a resolution, but that would be the big thing I'd be hoping for for 2023. <div><br /></div><div>Happy New Year to all, and to all however late a night you want. Mine will be an early one. </div>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-89291516235012960422022-12-11T16:45:00.003-05:002022-12-11T16:45:43.754-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 500 (1,000)<p>So here we are at Day 1,000. So much has changed, and so much hasn't. China continues to relax restrictions while still saying that zero-COVID remains in place. That may be true, but then why are there calls for the "full mobilization" of hospitals to ensure "combat effectiveness." Cities are said to be "accelerating the upgrading" of hospitals for "critically ill patients." For those critically ill people, there are fewer than one ICU beds for every 10,000 people. Local officials have been told to keep track of the health of everyone ages 65 and older. A virus testing center in Beijing shut down because all the employees were infected. Social media advised citizens to "please be patient." The official case count of 363,072 is up almost 50 percent from October 1. Zero-COVID, this is not.</p><p>Many people around here agree with POTUS's statement that the pandemic is over. The Professor and I treated ourselves to our favorite coffee shop this morning (it is a small local business, not Starbucks). The sign on the door saying that masks were no longer required but they appreciated patrons who wore them was gone. There were not many people there, but we were the only ones with masks. There were one or two other people wearing masks at the grocery store, but none of the staff wore them. As with the coffee shop, there was no signage about masks.</p><p>And I sit here on the Thousandth Day just up from the afternoon nap I have never before been able to take as a healthy adult. Naps are for sick people, and it appears I am one. I had a couple episodes of brain fog yesterday. I'm starting to wonder about things I may have done. I remember putting something in one place but it's no longer there. When I do find it, I have no memory of putting it where I found it. I worry about me. The pandemic is not over here.</p><p>Actively searching for and reading whatever news I could find each and every day did influence the way I looked at things. For one, it made me paranoid about being exposed and getting sick. I learned to accept that not everyone thought this way. When in-person instruction re-opened at The Local University, I accepted that there would come a time at which masks were no longer required. When The Professor put his mask aside and ended up with COVID, I, too, caught it. I had drawn the line at wearing a mask at home with The Professor and Son #1, who visited daily to run and get a dose of dog. I did not nag The Professor about wearing a mask after they were no longer required at The U; I could but do not regret that now. I am getting used to being the only one in the room wearing a mask.</p><p>I learned not to correct comments other people made; because I did not go anywhere, this rarely mattered in person. I learned to click past such comments on social media and remind myself of the First Amendment. Because we usually are drawn to similar people, I really do not personally know any anti-vaxxers, people who deny the pandemic exists or existed at all, or pandemic conspiracy theorists. That I some years ago ended social media friendships with people who openly supported our EX-POTUS probably helped in that regard. </p><p>I at one point mentioned that I would keep this blog going until I was fully vaccinated. That did not happen. I mentally had other breakpoints that passed. Now, as it becomes harder to find new news about SARS CoV-2 coupled with not knowing how long I will be as tired as I am now, it seems to be time. I won't stop reading what comes into my inbox or what notifications appear on my phone. If something I read intrigues me, I will take some notes and post something here. If I write about some other thing that interests me, I'll post that, too. In other words, The View from the Hermitage has not really changed; The Road goes ever on and on and may for some time. I just need to wander elsewhere. I have enjoyed reading your comments, really. When I learn whether what ails me might really be long COVID, I'll post something about that. I hope it isn't, but if it's not, then I hope it can be treated. </p><p>Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night ... for now.</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-25066040601688158212022-12-10T15:50:00.002-05:002022-12-10T15:50:31.333-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 499 (999)<p>If there was new news out there concerning the pandemic in general or SARS-CoV-2 in particular, I did not find it. Nothing in new digest emails, no newspaper delivered, and no headlines on the news websites. I called that a reason to nap, which I did. People who know me well know that I don''t nap, can't nap even. The Professor has napping down to an art, but I don't. The only times I'm able to nap are when I'm sick, which I guess I could be. Tomorrow is the big millennium in days, not years.</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-55219582298626292202022-12-09T17:20:00.000-05:002022-12-09T17:20:23.656-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 498 (998)<p>I just finished reading the transcript of <a href="https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/physician-makes-his-final-rounds-public-servant" target="_blank">an interview with Dr. Fauci </a>as he prepares to retire from government service at the age (when he actually retires) of 82. It was quite interesting and worth reading. It would be nice to have a beer with him and talk more about getting the public to understand and appreciate science.</p><p>COVID vaccines and treatments will be going commercial eventually. Just as we now have to buy our own COVID tests, we'll be paying for the vaccines to get before those tests as well as the treatments to request after those tests come up positive. Pfizer and Moderna have said that their vaccines will likely be between $82.00 and $130.00 <u>per dose.</u> This may leave people with no health insurance high and dry when it comes to being vaccinated. </p><p>The CDC released the results of their studies on the effectiveness of the bivalent boosters against infection. Compared to being unvaccinated, the bivalent booster was 42 percent effective against infection for people between the ages of 18 and 49, 28 percent effective for people between the ages of 50 and 64, and 22 percent effective for people over the age of 65. The more the time between the doses, the more protection offered. That's one reason they say to wait so many months between the last booster and the latest one. Data on the effectiveness of the bivalent booster against severe disease will be coming. </p><p>The BQ.1 variants of Omicron now account for about 70 percent of the cases in the US. BQ.1.1 in particular accounts for 37 percent. The rise in hospital admissions is similar to what has been seen in France, who as before has been several weeks ahead of the US in COVID progression.</p><p>Not much new info in today's post; I pretty much did no news reading today. I've been concerned for some time about how much caffeine it's been taking me to get through a day and how tired I am even after a decent night's sleep (defined as not having to get up to use the bathroom). After a noteworthy episode of what might be called brain fog--forgetting I had turned on the water in the kitchen sink and not noticing until the hot water heater had been emptied--I finally admitted to myself that I might have a mild ( I hope) case of long COVID. I now have an appointment to see my doctor on the 20th. While I by no means have the severe symptoms a friend of mine has had, there is clearly something going on. If coming posts are not as long or detailed, it's probably because I'm taking care of other things such as me.</p><p>I will definitely have something to offer on Sunday, Day 1,000 though. I've been thinking a lot about that.</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-57537289227567497222022-12-08T16:43:00.000-05:002022-12-08T16:43:02.644-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 497 (997)<p>Many things took longer than planned today, and dinner prep is calling now. I do have notes for today and just saw some more news worth including, but it will have to be tomorrow. Apologies!</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-90128245237302087022022-12-07T14:51:00.000-05:002022-12-07T14:51:23.325-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 496 (996)<p>The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor 81 years ago today. A new recruit who was 17 on that day would now be 98. The greatest generation gets smaller every day; some are taken by a new enemy, COVID-19.</p><p>There are various estimates of the number of people who have had COVID. Different reports use different methods, populations, and timing. The CDC's estimate for a time period ending in May 2022 is 42 percent. A not-yet-peer-reviewed paper posits 94 percent for a period ending last month, November 2022. An article in the <i>Canadian Medical Association Journal</i> says 61 percent for a time period ending in August 2022. Finally, a study reported in The Lancet suggested 58 percent for a period ending in February 2022. Until that <i>Lancet </i>study popped up, I was going to note that the three percentages were in line if ordered by date. That is, 42 percent for May, 61 percent for August, and 94 percent for November. </p><p>China has rolled back rules on isolating people with COVID and loosened virus test requirements. Experts say, though, that it will be mid 2023 before all requirements can be lifted. </p><p>A COVID opinion survey of 1,147 US adults done between December 2 and 5 had some interesting results. For example, 69 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that "the federal government should continue funding prevention measures." At the same time, 44 percent agreed with the statement that "America has already spent enough fighting COVID; it's time to stop and move on." At one end of the continuum, 45 percent believe that "public health officials lied about how effective COVID-19 vaccines and masks are" and 39 percent believe that "Dr. Anthony Fauci should be investigated for his role in the COVID-19 response." Only 30 percent claimed to be acutely aware of the state of the public health emergency and still take steps such as masking, while 70 percent strongly or somewhat believe that we are moving to a point where the virus won't disrupt daily lives.</p><p>The international vaccine agency, Gavi, is discussing ending Covax, the program to deliver COVID vaccines to countries who could not afford them. Demand for those vaccines is lessening. Gavi manages stockpiles of emergency vaccines and supplies routine childhood shots to developing countries. If Covax ends, COVID vaccines would be rolled into the standard immunization program for 54 countries. Other countries would have to pay something for the vaccines.</p><p>My Mom's assisted living facility is up to five cases of COVID. Three are in the general population including one who sits with My Mom at meals. My Mom is not sociable by nature, something I'm glad about now. Watching TV in her apartment exposes her to so many fewer germs than watching TV with other people in the lounge would. I'll be dropping things for her off at the entry desk until they've hit the magical (and relative) zero-COVID.</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-26011189507826225292022-12-06T15:29:00.002-05:002022-12-06T15:29:53.850-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 495 (995)<p>My Mom just called. They have a COVID case on the memory care floor of her assisted living facility. Residents of that floor don't mix with residents of the other floors, though staff may go to both areas. As a result, staff are now required to wear masks. Residents don't have to wear masks since it's figured they would not get exposed. (Yeah, right.) My Mom has had both a flu shot and the bivalent booster; I hope that's enough to keep her 90-year-old self safe. </p><p>As for respiratory ailments in general, it's the worst flu season in over 10 years. Evidently, the care taken during the pandemic has left us "immunologically naive" and more vulnerable to the viruses out there. RSV, flu, and COVID are all rising at the same time, though RSV may be peaking in some regions of the country. It appears to have peaked in the South but is still rising rapidly in the West. Flu is rising fast and shows no sign of slowing down. COVID is rising everywhere, driven by seasonal changes, behavioral changes, and a broad mix of variants. It takes about two weeks to see the epidemiological impact of holidays, and Thursday will be two weeks from Thanksgiving. Canada tracks hospitalizations by age; the highest risk groups are those ages four and under or adults over the age of 65.</p><p>Federal funding for COVID care will be ending soon, and the effect on about 30 million uninsured people will not be pretty. They may end up having to pay for COVID testing and treatment; it would not be surprising if some stopped seeking care altogether. Evidently, some people have so far been charged over $3,000 for a basic COVID test. Hospitalization with COVID can top a million dollars. So far, treatments such as Paxlovid have been free, though seeing a doctor to get a prescription may not be. Both vaccines and treatments will be on the commercial market by summer and there is no telling what companies will charge for them. The White House has proposed a Vaccines for Adults program mirroring the program for childhood vaccines. The program supplies vaccines and reimburses providers for any administrative fees that arise. Whether such a program will be approved is hard to say and might even depend on the outcome of the special Senate election taking place in Georgia today.</p><p><br /></p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-91343972569613227252022-12-05T15:17:00.000-05:002022-12-05T15:17:11.058-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 494 (994)Non-COVID news first today. The Oxford word of the year is "goblin mode." The runner-up was "metaverse." I know what metaverse is all about, but I drew a blank on goblin mode. Fortunately, the article I was reading included a definition: "A type of behavior which is unaplogetically self-indulgent, lazy, slovenly, or greedy, typically in a way that rejects social norms or expectations." Now that I know what the term means, I don't plan on trying to use it in everyday speech or writing. I was doing fine without it before and can continue to do so.<div><br /></div><div>Two independent research groups have shown a greater than 60 percent increased risk of newly diagnosed diabetes after a case of COVID. Also reported is that severe COVID can cause markers of old age in the brain. It seems that the genes active in the brains of older people are also as active in the brains of people who had serious COVID. It's the gift that keeps on giving!</div><div><br /></div><div>Another reason for seniors to get whatever booster they can. New York and California hospital admissions for seniors with COVID is higher than it was during the Omicron BA.2 and BA.5 waves and the Delta wave. The BQ.1.1 and XBB subvariants have surpassed their ancestors.</div><div><br /></div><div>China classifies infectious diseases into categories that also carry suggestions for disease management. Category A diseases include bubonic plague and cholera. Category B includes SARS, AIDS, and anthrax. Category C includes influenza, leprosy, and mumps. COVID has been classified as a Category B but managed as a Category A disease. COVID appears to be on the way to being managed as a Category B or possibly even Category C disease. The reasons for this include that 95 percent of cases are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and that the fatality rate is now low. This sounds more and more like the end of zero-Covid to me.</div><div> </div><div>I do have trouble with the argument that asymptomatic cases give a disease less clout or reason to be taken seriously. A person infected by someone with asymptomatic COVID will not necessarily have their own asymptomatic case of COVID; they could develop serious COVID. Many more factors are at play than how serious the case to which someone is exposed is. </div>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-24921672993446458692022-12-04T16:27:00.000-05:002022-12-04T16:27:52.642-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 493 (993)<p>Most of what i'll share today comes from one source but one I count as very credible, Eric Topol of the Scripps Institute. Much of the late morning and early afternoon was spent getting ready for and at a meeting of our Homeowners Association. There were 16 people seated around a large dining table. I was the only person wearing a mask. The neighbor who sat down beside me asked if masks were required; I thought that was funny given that only one person had one on. I told him they were optional. He did not pull one out of a pocket to wear.</p><p>I'm not giving up my mask any time soon. It's not looking at all good out there. Hospitalizations are up 25 percent. ICU admissions, test positivity, wastewater surveillance virus levels, and new cases are also rising. Cases continue to be undercounted due to home testing. Seniors (this sounds so much more polite than "elderly" to me) continue to bear the brunt of it. An analysis by the CDC and Kaiser Family Foundation shows that with most seniors having had the first two shots, more deaths are among those who have not added a booster to the initial doses.</p><p>More than one factor is in play here. Immunity is waning in no small part due to the pathetic booster rate. The US ranks lower than 70th among nations of the world. Less than one-third of seniors have gotten the bivalent booster. Having had a booster in the past four to six months does not do much to block infections, but it does a good job at preventing serious disease and hospitalization. Vaccinations have been available for almost two years now, and the CDC is still calling that "fully vaccinated." Boosters do not count toward the "fully."</p><p>Few mitigation measures still matter. The weather is turning cold, and people are turning to indoor gatherings for the holidays. My being the only masked person of 16 is not unusual. I haven't read anything about air filtration or ventilation lately. I am reminded of the childish "if I can't see you, you can't see me." Ignoring, not seeing, COVID does not mean it is no longer out there.</p><p>Omicron's BA.5 variant now accounts for only 14 percent of new cases in the US. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 now account for almost 63 percent of new cases. The major difference between the two BQ variants is that BQ.1.1 is more immune evasive and resistant to Evusheld. Both are resistant to Bebtelovimab which is why the FDA has withdrawn its Emergency Use Authorization. This means that we have lost the most preventive measure for immunocompromised people, Evusheld. There is no replacement on the horizon. The prevalence of BQ.1 was dropping in France, but is no longer. Hospitalizations have risen as BQ.1.1 has become more dominant. France now has the highest hospital admissions per capita. It's worth noting here that the French booster rate is 50 percent higher than ours. Finally, Paxlovid remains underprescribed for seniors despite its reducing severity and hospitalizations as well as long COVID.</p><p>A new wave is sweeping across Asia with cases rising in Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, and South Korea. Japan is seeing the beginning of a second BA.5 wave. They have done a great job of dealing with COVID but still have 120,000 new cases daily. Cases rising in Australia and New Zealand not to mention South America suggests that cold weather is not the large factor some would like to think. </p><p>How do we handle all this? Getting more bivalent booster doses into people, especially seniors, is one way. Ideally, everyone over the age of 50 would get the booster, but I think we know that that isn't going to happen. Can we re-introduce some of the mitigation measures we've dropped? Masks, anyone? Not gonna work unfortunately. We need to work harder toward a pan-coronavirus vaccine or we can abandon hope of yearly boosters. A pan-influenza vaccine seems effective; why not one for coronaviruses as well?</p><p>As we ponder all this, we should note that tomorrow is the start of National Influenza Vaccination Week.</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-10042182993854910052022-12-03T15:39:00.003-05:002022-12-03T15:39:47.115-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 492 (992)<p>The country in which I live is listed by the CDC as having a low COVID transmission level. Looking at the county statistics posted by <i>The New York Times</i>, though, the two-week average number of new cases has been up over 100 percent for Thursday and yesterday. I'm not sure I'd think of that as "low." Maybe the increased numbers of people testing positive are not transmitting COVID to others. The test positivity rate has gone from three to 7.5 percent in the same time. Given the number of people relying on home tests, that positivity rate is likely not at all accurate. </p><p>Also from the CDC are early data showing that people ages 12 and over who got their bivalent booster are 15 times less likely to die from COVID than unvaccinated people. That fact probably won't persuade die-hard anti-vaxxers to get vaccinated, but you can at least use it to try to persuade them. </p><p>China continues to preach zero-COVID even as it relaxes restrictions. Testing booths have been removed in Beijing. Other cities have announced that they will no longer require commuters to show a negative test result. Cities may also drop the requirement that people test negative to use public transport or visit parks. It's all coming too late to save Christmas, though. Current shipping from China to the US is down 34 percent compared with earlier this year. Production of iPhones has stayed down at the factory in Zhengzhou. Honda has paused production at their factory in Wuhan, and VW has done the same at their factory in Chengdu. Experts are noting the "strategic long-term impact" supply chain issues will have for companies such as Apple or Tesla. One put it as, "... for this to happen to Apple in the Christmas season is a gut punch." In response to the problems, some countries are starting to shift at least part of their operations to places such as Vietnam or India.</p><p>The Grinch had best look out. COVID may be doing a better job at stealing Christmas.</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-49959613709473249672022-12-02T13:53:00.000-05:002022-12-02T13:53:22.370-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 491 (991)<p>Paxlovid is a product of Pfizer. The Moderna analog is Molnupiravir. At the time these were put forward for emergency use authorization, some experts expressed concern that Molnupiravia was highly mutagenic. I wanted to make sure that I was reading things correctly, so I looked up "mutagenic" on dictionary.com. "Capable of inducing mutation or increasing its rate." Experts were concerned about Molnupitavir's effects if given to pregnant women; would it contribute to mutations in the fetus? Now experts are pointing to a new variant with more mutations in two months--72--than its lineage had caused in three years. Might that large increase be due to Molnupiravir? Some experts are calling on the FDA to repeal the Emergency Use Authorization until such questions have been answered.</p><p>Possibly in an attempt to quell protests and possibly (probably?) in an attempt to sustain zero-COVID, China is setting vaccination goals. Vaccinations have never been mandatory in China, even among the elderly or the immunocompromised. The targets set under the new plan are for 90 percent of people over the age of 80 to have gotten at least one dose of vaccine by January and for 95 percent of people between the ages of 60 and 79 to have had at least two doses. The vaccines will likely be those made in China which are not as effective for as long as the mRNA ones offered here.</p><p>Finally, Pantone has named its Color of 2023. And the winner is </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhHqnM1Z9L3gVu5Ga0bbb2gGg5ltW8Ofnd8VZTpQfJBeK6ezZSYOlHrRDmDtCMZNC-UREm10ttrLIUtkOW7w0Qe3NK3foRIouquThuxyUJwgtPrE0_UGOqNFuBRaULNdscsUPFG-is0_dk2X4rhHM79Ovq3cEAroPrwh5xJ5w1aeZpe5IQYptOGiUr2JA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="612" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhHqnM1Z9L3gVu5Ga0bbb2gGg5ltW8Ofnd8VZTpQfJBeK6ezZSYOlHrRDmDtCMZNC-UREm10ttrLIUtkOW7w0Qe3NK3foRIouquThuxyUJwgtPrE0_UGOqNFuBRaULNdscsUPFG-is0_dk2X4rhHM79Ovq3cEAroPrwh5xJ5w1aeZpe5IQYptOGiUr2JA" width="240" /></a></div><br /><p>not the red I see here, but something called Viva Magenta. It is described as "powerful and fearless, it is a pulsating color whose exuberance promotes optimism and joy. Powerful and empowering, it is an animated red that encourages experimentation and self-expression without restraint; an electrifying, boundaryless shade ... audacious, witty and inclusive of all." All that said, it still looks like red to me.</p><p><br /></p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-40792549034310328512022-12-01T14:22:00.003-05:002022-12-01T14:22:58.251-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 490 (990)<p>WHO and the European CDC say that Europe may be entering another COVID wave. In the past, the US has lagged several weeks behind Europe in terms of new cases and hospitalizations. While I hope that won't happen on this go-round, there are no guarantees.</p><p>More on long COVID. An online survey of 1,487 people in East England who tested positive in 2020 found that 52.1 percent of them said they had had post-COVID syndrome symptoms. One predictor of who might have such symptoms was BMI. Another risk factor found was being a woman; men were at significantly lower risk for developing long COVID. The people who responded to the survey were 61 percent female, had a mean age of 50, and had a mean BMI of 28.4 (considered "overweight"). Only 11 of the people responding had gotten a first dose of vaccine. A Scottish study published in <i>Nature Communications</i> found that six to 18 months after infection, one out of every 17 people had not yet recovered from COVID, and 42 percent had only partially recovered. </p><p>Over 75 percent of pediatric hospital beds are full right now due to respiratory viruses. Children under the ago of five have been especially hard hit. Pediatric hospitalization with RSV is seven times higher than it was in 2018, the last full season before COVID emerged. Hospitalizations for flu are the worst in 10 years, and COVID cases are starting to rise. So far, there have been three deaths from RSV and 12 from the flu. Some physicians say that a national emergency should have been declared a month ago. The curves for new cases and hospitalizations have been described as "almost vertical." Flu test positivity is 30 to 35 percent; there is as yet no test for RSV. One theory is that COVID has weakened children's immune systems. It also does not help that the rate for flu vaccinations is low this year, while preventive measures such as (yes) masks and hand washing are not stressed to the extent they were in the early days of the pandemic. </p><p>It is not clear if the Chinese government is backing down on COVID. Additional restrictions have been eased but not stopped, and a Vice Premier downplayed the severity of Omicron. One economist noted that the Vice Premier's comment coupled with the easing of some restrictions sends "yet another strong symbol that the zero-COVID policy will end within the next few months." I wouldn't bet on that just yet, but it is certainly one possibility.</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-49396965602722597382022-11-30T14:41:00.000-05:002022-11-30T14:41:34.489-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 489 (989)<p>With Day 1000 soon to be here, there was a comment asking about what that felt like. That is a strikingly long time. I'm reflecting and will try to offer cogent thoughts when that day arrives. Stay tuned. For other numbers, today's notes are in what is the 19th journal or leftover notebook that I've used since I started hanging onto such things in December 2020. I may have to keep going so as not to face the countless blank pages that would go unused were I to quit writing in it now. </p><p>The media reports on the situation in China now may or may not even mention COVID. The response of the Chinese Community Party to the protests reports that they will "resolutely crack down on infiltration and sabotage activities by hostile forces." "Hostile forces" sounds so external--forces coming in from outside rather than rising up inside. Some cities are seeing governmental shows of force--armored vehicles, random ID checks, or looking through photos on a phone, etc. The number of people detained is not known. Some experts predict that zero COVID could last another year. Economists and health experts say that China can't relax the controls that are keeping most people out of China until tens of millions of elderly have been vaccinated. There are districts or cities in which vaccination of the elderly has been stepped up, but it's going to take a while.</p><p>The NIH bulletin I got today had some interesting reports. Research suggests that there is a new antiviral medication that acts by changing the receptor cell in a person rather than changing any part of the viral cells. In theory, this means it should work on whatever new variants might emerge. Another research program suggests that any rebound is not due to Paxlovid and rather might come from a more active response from the patient's immune system. That system goes into overdrive cleaning up the last bits of the virus, possibly stirring it up in the process. Preliminary reports suggest that the development of long COVID may be influenced by past respiratory infections including Epstein-Barr virus.</p><p>The research report I found most interesting was by researchers from the NIH Clinical Center, the National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research, and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. They examined tissue from 44 patients who died of COVID or who had tested positive for COVID before they died. For some, the positive test was in the days before death; in others, it was months earlier. The patients ranged in age from six to 91 years old. SARS-CoV-2 was found in almost every organ and organ system including "skin, eyes, stomach, muscles, fat, glands, and six different parts of their brains." Whether a patient was symptomatic or not did not matter.</p><p>I found this report fascinating and not necessarily in a good way. We tend to think of COVID as a respiratory infection since it travels in aerosol form and starts out in the respiratory system. Unless we're physicians or scientists, we probably stop thinking about it there. Much as we would like to believe, it doesn't stop in the respiratory system in some (many?) cases. <u>Every</u> organ and <u>every</u> organ system. What we've been calling "long COVID" may be from viral matter left behind in non-respiratory organs and systems. Are people even trying to treat those other organs and systems? That said, I do know someone with long COVID who has been assured by her doctor that all her organs are fine. More on which to reflect in the coming days. </p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-91259982017692520182022-11-29T17:12:00.001-05:002022-11-29T17:12:48.580-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 488 (988)<p>COVID may be about to explode in China. About 90 percent of the population is vaccinated with the primary series of Chinese vaccines. The problem is that those vaccines are not very effective against Omicron, and only 30 percent of people over the age of 80 have gotten even one booster. Infection-based immunity is low; over 30 studies show that the hybrid immunity of vaccination plus infection builds a more complex immunity wall. The six-month picture depicted in an article in <i>Nature Medicine</i> is grim: 11.2 million symptomatic cases; 2.7 ICU admissions or 15.6 times the ICU capacity; and 1.55 million deaths, 75 percent of which would be in people over the age of 60. A COVID outbreak could start to open floodgates. A massive outbreak would be the worst yet for supply chains. It would also open the door to an unknown number of variants.</p><p>Quickies: </p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;">Global COVID surveillance is down 90 percent. This means that there will be little warning of a new variant. Even now, it is not clear which form of Omicron is underlying the current wave. </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;">For the first time in the US, more vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated ones. In August 58 percent of COVID deaths were in people who had been vaccinated or boosted. </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;">A not-yet-peer-reviewed study reports that the COVID found in New York City's rat population shows susceptibility to Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants. It is not clear if the rats could spread the virus to humans.</p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;">A specialized MRI showed lingering brain abnormalities up to six months after someone recovers from COVID. The brain regions affected are linked to fatigue, insomnia, anxiety, depression, headaches, and cognitive problems. Future research may look at patients with long COVID.</p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;">The US government has extended the COVID-19 public health emergency through January 11, 2023.</p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span> A CDC study compared 200,000 patients who took Paxlovid with 500,000 patients who did not. The good news is that the Paxlovid group had a 51 percent lower hospitalization rate. The bad news is that only 28 percent of people eligible for Paxlovid were prescribed it.</span></p></blockquote><p>There are still so many things about COVID that may or may not be related and that, together, add up to a somewhat scary picture. Right now, I'm not sure the end of official pandemic status as declared by WHO will be declared in 2023. And even if it is, we'll be feeling the effects of the coronavirus for many, many years to come.</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"> </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"> </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"> </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"> </p></blockquote><p></p><p><br /></p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-2956710123964425542022-11-28T14:33:00.003-05:002022-11-28T14:33:48.336-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 487 (987)<p>Let's start with some non-coronavirus quickies. First, a monkeypox one, or, an mpox one. Worried about the negative aspects of the "monkey" part of monkeypox, WHO has replaced "monkey" with "m." There is some sort of one-year transition period, but the article from which I pulled this bit of info was already using mpox. Measles is becoming an international threat due to the healthcare disruptions during the pandemic. That's all we need--another highly contagious virus with an effective vaccine people may or may not be getting. Merriam-Webster has declared its word of the year to be "gaslighting," referring to deliberate efforts to manipulate another person into distrusting their own judgment. Could that word have been chosen in response to all the divisiveness in today's world, with one group calling into question another group's belief about science, vaccines, or other relevant topics?</p><p>As for divisiveness, Dr. Fauci spoke about it on his Sunday-talk-show retirement tour yesterday, saying he is very troubled by today's divisiveness and its effect on public health. He blamed the divisiveness on anti-science, anti-vaccine thinking. Appearing on a different show, he said he was maintaining a "completely open mind" about the possible laboratory origin of SARS-CoV-2 while also believing that the evidence for a natural origin "is pretty strong."</p><p>China remains on edge. While authorities have put up barriers and patrolled streets where protests have been held, they have also eased some restrictions. The gates blocking access to some apartment complexes in Beijing have been removed, and some cities are scaling back or ending mandatory testing. The COVID wave continues with over 40,000 new cases Monday. Of these, over 36,000 are asymptomatic. There is some concern about what happens if China backs off zero COVID. Chinese people have no real "wall of immunity" citizens of other countries have due to vaccination or infection. Right now, there are no mRNA vaccines available in China without which a giant COVID wave could produce newer, more dangerous variants. The countries that have been most successful at dealing with COVID, including New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, and Denmark have followed a pattern of containment (2020), vaccination (2021), and treatment (2022). China's pulling off all three of those at the same time would require a miracle.</p><p>Finally, here's some new evidence that might actually persuade some men to get vaccinated or at least to avoid catching COVID. It seems that men infected with COVID have one third less sperm compared to uninfected men over six months later. And of 100 men infected but not hospitalized, four had <u>no</u> visible sperm, something not seen in 100 men who were not infected. Serious male contraception or a blow to someone's masculinity? I'm a woman, so I wouldn't know.</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-52935896779545857262022-11-27T15:54:00.001-05:002022-11-27T15:54:35.502-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 486 (986)<p>The extra-long weekend, Wednesday through today, has played havoc with my inner calendar and clock. I look forward to knowing tomorrow that it is Monday, the next day will be Tuesday, and so on. The Professor will leave at a known time and return home at a roughly known time. Of course, when classes end on December 5, I'll have to adjust to a new schedule.</p><p>Not much news other than that the situation in China gets more and more interesting every day. The protesters have moved from yelling to call for an end to the lockdowns to yelling to call for the departure of Xi Jinping and an end to the Chinese Communist Party. They also call for no more testing; rather, they'd like their freedom. Given that some people have been confined in their homes for some four months, I can't say I blame them for protesting. It will just be very interesting to see what sort of response the government prepares. </p><p>Here's hoping there's more news tomorrow, not all of it bad.</p><p><br /></p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-2795434951368618132022-11-26T14:30:00.000-05:002022-11-26T14:30:03.039-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 485 (985)<p>China had a record number of COVID cases this week including 31,656 on Thursday alone. Get your Valentine's Day and Easter shopping done soon; there are likely more supply chain disruptions coming. Protests are rare in China, but there are some happening. There was one in Xinjiang after a deadly fire triggered by the long lockdown there. Besides damaging the economy, zero COVID has undermined trust in the government. China needs to get the latest surge under control. Hospitals there are not ready for a sustained surge in serious cases. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that lifting COVID controls could put 5.8 million Chinese into intensive care. Given that China has four ICU beds per 100,000 people, that's not good. Only 40 percent of Chinese over the age of 80 have gotten any booster; of people over the age of 60, two-thirds have been boosted. These vaccinations were of the China-made vaccine. The government did just make Western-made mRNA vaccines available, but only to foreigners residing in China.</p><p>Existing monoclonal antibody treatments are not working well against Omicron variants, leading scientists to look for other antibodies that are attracted to vulnerable parts of the virus that have not yet been targeted. Most treatments so far have targeted the region of the spike protein where the virus attaches to the human cell. The drawback here is that the target changes frequently. Some scientists are now targeting the other end of the protein, an area called the stem helix. This part has not changed as new variants and subvariants have developed suggesting that it plays a vital role. Others are looking at the fusion peptide that inserts into the human cell membrane to pull the cell closer to the viral molecule. The antibodies under development are not as potent as the earlier ones but may be effective against a wider variety of coronaviruses.</p><p>I don't want to see a post-Thanksgiving wave lead into another Christmas one, but it might be worth it if it persuaded more people to get the latest booster. I've given up hope of anyone who is not yet vaccinated changing their mind this late in the game. Odds are that COVID is not going away. </p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-76093661559669600212022-11-25T18:06:00.001-05:002022-11-25T18:06:52.124-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 484 (984)<p>If you hadn't already figured it out, I won't be posting anything substantive today. I've been taking care of things I did not do yesterday or the day before. I don't think I missed any thrilling news, but if I find any I did miss, tomorrow is another day.</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-39393995500254633582022-11-23T15:39:00.005-05:002022-11-23T15:40:29.655-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 482 (982)<p>Dr. Fauci has given what is probably his last White House COVID briefing, expressing optimism that we will not be seeing a winter COVID surge. He said that between infections and vaccinations, people have "enough community protection that we're not going to see a repeat of what we saw last year at this time." He did urge Americans to get the appropriate booster. The White House response coordinator also stressed the importance of boosters noting, "Nothing I have seen in the subvariants makes me believe that we can't manage our way through it effectively, especially if people step up and get their vaccine." Only 35 million Americans have so far gotten the latest booster; the government purchased enough doses for almost five times as many people. There are some concerns at the federal level about the XBB subvariant; so far, though, XBB has led to jumps in cases but not hospitalizations. </p><p>A Japanese brokerage firm estimates that 49 cities or one-third of China's population and two-fifths of the economic output are under partial or complete lockdowns. This is a sharp increase from last week. The Chinese population has little immunity, having had very few infections and very few vaccinations. Only one-third of Chinese citizens aged 60 or older have never gotten a booster.</p><p>COVID misinformation is still out there. A representative from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security noted that getting vaccines made is one thing, and that vaccines don't matter unless "a missing social behavioral piece" is addressed. The estimate is that five to 30 percent of unvaccinated Americans have been influenced by COVID misinformation. Misinformation, especially in social media, is usually issued by a right-wing group or personality, making our current political divide even more deadly. I wish I had a solution, but I don't. I'd love to hear ideas on the subject.</p><p>Tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day. When I am not preparing or consuming food, I plan to enjoy family time. In other words, there will be no post here tomorrow. See you on Friday!</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-3921103301260371392022-11-22T14:41:00.000-05:002022-11-22T14:41:19.103-05:00The Road gies ever on and on ... Day 481 (981)<p>Another slow news day. That does make it easier to get things done. I made the crust for the pumpkin pie I'll make tomorrow. I also made bread; that's in the oven even as I type. No one seems worried about a holiday surge unlike the last two years. Maybe the coronavirus and news thereof are taking their own holiday this year.</p><p>I think that a few days ago I mentioned a cruise ship heading to Sydney with 800 people confined to their cabins presumably due to COVID. Princess, Carnival, and Royal Caribbean have reinstated mask mandates and other virus restrictions on some cruises based in Australia and New Zealand. The cruise lines only recently reopened after having been shut down for two years.</p><p>Zero COVID continues. Beijing has moved teaching online and urged people to stay home. This may or may not be a good test for China's recent shift away from even stricter measures. Two more elderly people, both with pre-existing conditions, died, bringing the total on the current wave to 12. </p><p>Finally, it was noted in an article on the bivalent booster that it is likely more important to get unvaccinated people their initial vaccination(s) than to get vaccinated people boosters. That does not give you leave to ignore a booster for which you are eligible at an appropriate time. I'll be going as a New Year's present to myself. </p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-7898625154753249832022-11-21T14:01:00.000-05:002022-11-21T14:01:46.071-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 480 (980)<p>Had your own case of COVID yet? It's estimated that as of November 10, 94 percent of Americans had had COVID at least once, and that many of those infections were in the last year. Your bad cold could have been COVID, but you may not have self-tested. Or maybe you were truly asymptomatic. I'd say being asymptomatic would be good except that someone who is asymptomatic and doesn't know it could be infecting lots of other people. </p><p>Speaking of being contagious, I found a comparison of the flu, RSV, and COVID in terms of how long a sufferer remains contagious. For flu, consider yourself contagious for five to seven days after the onset of symptoms. The contagion period for RSV is three to eight days, though some infants with less developed immune symptoms can be contagious for as long as four weeks. Evidence is showing that a person with COVID can remain contagious for as long as eight to ten days. Going to a holiday gathering? If you have any respiratory symptoms now, I wouldn't go. And testing yourself the morning of the gathering is not a bad idea.</p><p>So far, there is no reason to fear a BQ.1 or BQ.1.1 surge. France was the first country to get a high proportion of BQ cases; it became the dominant variant there in October just as hospitalizations were falling. Only now are hospitalizations and cases starting to increase, and that increase has not been rapid. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are now dominant here in the US, and there have been no major increases in cases, percent positivity, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, or deaths. Some models show the BQs hanging around for several months. This may be the first time in the pandemic that a variant with marked immune evasion has not caused a major new wave of infections. </p><p>Between vaccinations and natural immunity from infection, the SARS-CoV-2 virus may well be having difficulty finding new hosts. The bivalent booster does have some neutralizing antibody cross-protection against BQ1.1. Now if only more people would get that booster. Are we there yet, "there" being out of the woods and free from worry? Many experts say we are not. The SARS-CoV-2 mutation rate has risen by 30 percent in the past year, meaning that Omicron and its subvariants could still mutate into something more dangerous. How lucky do you feel?</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-51719442027634701732022-11-20T16:46:00.001-05:002022-11-20T16:46:07.672-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 479 (979)<p>So it's approaching 5:00, and the only news I've noted is one line from last night, which is that the BQ.1.1 Omicron variant demonstrates resistance to all available monoclonal antibodies. Today was one of those days. I did get various things accomplished or at least advanced; unfortunately, this blog was not one of them. You may be reading this more this week as the list of what to do each day grows. The week is nice for reminding me of things I am thankful for but might otherwise overlook. I can't argue with that.</p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-26890178736865553872022-11-19T13:58:00.001-05:002022-11-19T13:58:31.340-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 478 (978)<p>The pandemic is not over, but some things are changing. Fewer people are dying in hospitals and more are dying at home or in hospice or nursing home care. Fewer people are getting severe COVID, and patients are less likely to be in an ICU or on a ventilator. The rates for both of those--ICU and ventilator--have dropped more than halfway since the Delta wave. People ages 65 and older are becoming a larger share of COVID deaths. This could be because younger people are more vaccinated; half of the people over the age of 65 who die have only gotten one booster. It could also be that older people have weaker immune systems, or are more likely to have worrisome preexisting conditions. The fact that people over the age of 80 are less likely to get Paxlovid than are people under the age of 65 contributes as well. Finally, while more men are still dying than women, disparities between racial and ethnic groups have narrowed.</p><p>In terms of deaths, most deaths list COVID as an underlying cause of death. It can also be a contributing cause of death if it places stress on some body system that is already in trouble, such as a comorbidity. COVID can also be incidental as when a person who has COVID dies from some unrelated trauma such as a car accident. </p><p>In terms of being someone age 66 and with a couple preexisting conditions, I have skipped all quilt guild functions since the show in April of this year, at which I wore a mask constantly. I was not the only one wearing a mask either. I recently saw photos of a guild workshop I might have enjoyed but did not attend. No one sitting closely around a large table was wearing a mask. Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I won't get infected again, but I can at least do my best to lower the probability. </p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240481481686573344.post-60125792659447929262022-11-18T15:59:00.000-05:002022-11-18T15:59:06.336-05:00The Road goes ever on and on ... Day 477 (977)<p>Declaring today lost. I'll take my few notes from today over to tomorrow. Had things to do today with family and a friend I think of as family. Now, after an afternoon walk with The Family Dog and My Brother, it's time to relax. </p>Jeanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00551547836073871713noreply@blogger.com0